J.P. Morgan downgraded Total's energy rating from “increased holdings” to “neutral,” and the target price remained at 83 euros. The bank believes that the company's long-term fundamentals are still stable, the balance sheet can support years of growth, and it is expected that next week, Investor Day will reaffirm the growth path after 2030 and more than 40% of operating cash flow for the 2026 fiscal year for shareholder returns. However, according to J.P. Morgan Chase, Total Energy's 2027 free cash flow yield is about 9%, and the 2027-2028 forecast is only 100 to 150 basis points higher than that of large British energy companies. The current valuation already reflects its operating advantages to a large extent. At the same time, the company has the highest direct exposure to Middle Eastern assets among large European oil companies. Continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may slow down cash conversion, and current forecasts for the fourth quarter and beyond still assume that upstream assets will not stop production. J.P. Morgan Chase also said that although the company's annual business target is still on track, the room to further exceed expectations has shrunk. The basic output of the exploration and production business increased 3% year over year, lower than the 4% growth rate in the first half of the year.

J.P. Morgan downgraded Total's energy rating from “increased holdings” to “neutral,” and the target price remained at 83 euros. The bank believes that the company's long-term fundamentals are still stable, the balance sheet can support years of growth, and it is expected that next week, Investor Day will reaffirm the growth path after 2030 and more than 40% of operating cash flow for the 2026 fiscal year for shareholder returns. However, J.P. Morgan notes that Total Energy's 2027 free cash flow yield is about 9%, and the 2027-2028 forecast is only 100 to 150 basis points higher than that of large British energy companies. The current valuation already reflects its operating advantages to a large extent. At the same time, the company has the highest direct exposure to Middle Eastern assets among large European oil companies. Continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may slow down cash conversion, and current forecasts for the fourth quarter and beyond still assume that upstream assets will not stop production. J.P. Morgan Chase also said that although the company's annual business target is still on track, the room to further exceed expectations has shrunk. The basic output of the exploration and production business increased 3% year over year, lower than the 4% growth rate in the first half of the year.