According to Shen Wan Hongyuan's research report, entering the second half of 2026, the core conflict in global asset pricing has gradually switched from the AI narrative at the beginning of the year to repeated conflicts between the US and Iran and the impact on energy supply. Before the midterm elections, the US government's demand for “suppressing oil prices and reducing inflation” will often be strengthened, but this time the restrictions are stronger and more difficult. Trump has anchored the cease-fire and the fall in oil prices until before and after the midterm elections, and has made it clear that “oil prices may drop after the midterm elections.” In terms of supply, low inventories, poor strait navigation, insufficient refinery flexibility, widening gasoline and diesel cracking price spreads, and the term structure maintains significant spot price premiums. Compared with 2018, supply buffers are weaker and political price pressure is later. According to Shen Wan Hongyuan's judgment, under a neutral assumption, before the US midterm elections, oil prices may remain high and the center is about 100 US dollars/barrel; after the midterm elections, oil prices may drop quarterly to around 75 US dollars from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027, but due to bottlenecks in stocks and refined oil products, the center will still be higher than before the conflict.

According to Shen Wan Hongyuan's research report, entering the second half of 2026, the core conflict in global asset pricing has gradually switched from the AI narrative at the beginning of the year to repeated conflicts between the US and Iran and the impact on energy supply. Before the midterm elections, the US government's demand for “suppressing oil prices and reducing inflation” will often be strengthened, but this time the restrictions are stronger and more difficult. Trump has anchored the cease-fire and the fall in oil prices until before and after the midterm elections, and has made it clear that “oil prices may drop after the midterm elections.” In terms of supply, low inventories, poor strait navigation, insufficient refinery flexibility, widening gasoline and diesel cracking price spreads, and the term structure maintains significant spot price premiums. Compared with 2018, supply buffers are weaker and political price pressure is later. According to Shen Wan Hongyuan's judgment, under a neutral assumption, before the US midterm elections, oil prices may remain high and the center is about 100 US dollars/barrel; after the midterm elections, oil prices may drop quarterly to around 75 US dollars from the end of 2026 to the beginning of 2027, but due to bottlenecks in stocks and refined oil products, the center will still be higher than before the conflict.