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Does QNX Growth Change The Bull Case For BlackBerry (TSX:BB)?

Simply Wall St · 3d ago
  • Coretura has selected BlackBerry QNX based Alloy Kore, delivered through Vector Distribution, as the safety certified foundation for its software defined commercial vehicle platform targeting high performance compute systems.
  • The decision embeds QNX into a ready to use SDV stack for heavy vehicles, which strengthens BlackBerry’s position in safety critical automotive and commercial transport software.
  • This development also affects how BlackBerry’s investment narrative is framed in connection with this QNX SDV platform win and its rising revenue guidance.
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BlackBerry Investment Narrative Recap

To own BlackBerry, you need to believe the QNX and Secure Communications segments can keep turning design wins and contracts into durable, high margin software revenue. The Coretura win fits that view by putting QNX at the base of another commercial vehicle platform, which supports the existing QNX royalty backlog but does not radically change the short term picture.

The near term catalyst still sits in execution against fiscal 2027 guidance and whether QNX can sustain the recent 26% revenue increase while supporting higher group profitability. The biggest immediate risk remains valuation and execution. The stock trades on a rich P/E multiple, so delivery missteps or slower deal activity could be punished quickly.

The most relevant recent milestone for this Coretura news is QNX revenue rising 26% in fiscal Q1 2027, alongside a royalty backlog near US$1b and higher full year revenue guidance. The Coretura SDV platform decision plugs directly into that story because it adds another embedded opportunity tied to high performance compute in commercial vehicles.

For you as a shareholder or potential investor, the link between that backlog and actual cash collection is the key catalyst to watch. Each deployment like Alloy Kore in production fleets helps test how quickly royalties convert at scale. The risk is that heavy competition from alternative automotive software platforms could slow new wins or pressure pricing if customers push for more options.

BlackBerry's narrative projects US$762.3 million in revenue and US$139.7 million in earnings by 2029. This is based on an assumed 9.5% yearly revenue growth and would require an increase in earnings of about 2.3 times from US$59.8 million today.

Uncover why BlackBerry's fair value indicates a 6% potential downside to its current price, leaving little room for error.

TSX:BB 1-Year Stock Price Chart
TSX:BB 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic BlackBerry analysts were already baking in about 10.4% annual revenue growth and around US$781.2 million of sales by 2029 before this Coretura decision. Their thesis leans on Alloy Kore as a major earnings catalyst. You might see this news and wonder if those bullish forecasts now look more realistic or still too generous.

Explore 3 other BlackBerry fair value estimates, including one that suggests up to 34% potential upside from the current price.

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker. Dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

Looking For More Investment Ideas Beyond BlackBerry?

If the BlackBerry story has sharpened your view on software and safety critical platforms, it can help to benchmark it against other opportunities. The Simply Wall St Screener lets you quickly filter for different profiles so you can compare risk, quality, and income potential across the market.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.