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SoftBank Group (TSE:9984), What Is Behind The Latest Attention?

Simply Wall St · 18h ago

SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) has launched a senior unsecured notes offering of more than ¥11b in value to help fund its planned ¥10b contribution to the third tranche of its OpenAI investment.

SoftBank Group’s recent senior notes plan comes after a strong run in the share price, with a 20.17% 1‑month share price return and a 36.84% year to date gain. The 41.24% 1‑year total shareholder return and very large 3‑year total shareholder return suggest longer term momentum has remained robust even with a 4.27% 3‑month share price pullback.

Scan other AI infrastructure plays that are moving on major funding headlines with our curated list of 86 AI infrastructure stocks alongside SoftBank Group’s OpenAI financing push.

SoftBank Group has rallied hard on AI optimism and a record bond sale, which is now funding an even larger OpenAI stake. After this surge, does the current valuation still leave more upside than downside for new buyers?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.5% Undervalued

SoftBank Group last closed at ¥6,315, while the most followed narrative pegs fair value at ¥7,749.71, so the story centers on whether the market is underpricing a complex mix of AI optionality and funding risk.

The prevailing narrative centers on AI adoption as an unstoppable growth engine across industries, but high valuations now may ignore the risk that normalization of interest rates and tighter funding could compress multiples for high-growth, capital-intensive private tech ventures, leading to lower Vision Fund investment returns and potential write-downs, reducing net margins and earnings stability.

See why 22 investors see SoftBank Group as 19% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of ¥7,749.71 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, if AI related IPOs disappoint or higher funding costs bite into leveraged bets, the SoftBank Group narrative could shift from underpriced upside to a period of prolonged volatility.

Find out about the key risks to this SoftBank Group narrative.

Another View: Cash Flows Paint A Tougher Picture For SoftBank Group

Analyst targets and narrative pricing suggest SoftBank Group looks undervalued, but the Simply Wall St DCF model points the other way. On that cash flow based view, the shares trade above an estimated value of ¥2,404.11, which implies the stock screens as expensive rather than cheap. Which story do you think is closer to reality?

For investors who want to scrutinize the cash flow math rather than just the headline price target, Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

9984 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2026
9984 Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out SoftBank Group for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 17 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Mixed signals on SoftBank Group and AI financing often split opinions. Move quickly, check the full picture, and weigh the trade off for yourself using the 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

Looking for more ideas beyond SoftBank Group?

If SoftBank Group has sharpened your focus on where capital flows next, do not stop here. Broader idea hunting can round out your watchlist and surface opportunities that match your risk, income, and quality preferences.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.