Samsung HBM4 boosts volume! Bernstein expects HBM's revenue to increase 72% month-on-month in Q3, and the storage boom continues to heat up

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the latest South Korean memory chip export tracking report released by Bernstein shows that South Korea's high-bandwidth memory (HBM) related exports continued to grow strongly in August. Among them, Samsung Electronics' HBM4 release momentum was particularly prominent. Based on regression analysis of export data for July and August, Bernstein predicts that Samsung's third-quarter HBM revenue may increase 72% month-on-month to about 11.4 billion US dollars, which is about 23% higher than the bank's previous forecast.

Overall, the amount of multi-chip storage products exported by South Korea to Taiwan and Malaysia increased 19% month-on-month in August, 17% from May, and 77% year-on-year. Since the relevant export data is highly correlated with Samsung and SK Hynix's historical HBM revenue, Bernstein believes that the latest data shows that overall demand for HBM in the third quarter was still strong.

Samsung's Q3 HBM revenue may reach US$11.4 billion, and HBM4 becomes a growth engine

Looking at Samsung, related exports from South Korea's Chungcheongnam-do rebounded 30% month-on-month to US$2.8 billion in August, a sharp increase of 61% over May. South Chungcheong Province is home to Samsung's back-end production facilities and is one of the main regions for its HBM packaging. The total export volume for July and August increased by 83% compared to the same period in the previous quarter, indicating that Samsung's HBM business maintained a strong growth momentum in the third quarter.

Based on the regression relationship between historical export data and HBM revenue, Bernstein predicts that Samsung's HBM revenue in the third quarter may reach about 11.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 72% over the previous quarter, which is about 23% higher than the bank's previous forecast of 9.3 billion US dollars.

It is worth noting that Samsung HBM exports usually have more obvious characteristics of concentrated shipments at the end of the quarter. Since the first quarter of 2025, exports in the first month of each quarter have averaged less than 20% of the entire quarter. Currently, it seems that this pattern continues in the third quarter, which means there is still room for further growth in September shipments.

HBM4 has become an important factor driving Samsung's growth. Bernstein observes changes in HBM's average sales price and product mix by tracking the “unit weight value” of exported products. In August, the unit weight value of multi-chip storage products in South Chungcheong Province, which is Samsung's export agent index, once again increased 8% month-on-month, reaching 2.2 times the April level.

Bernstein believes that this significant increase is likely mainly due to an increase in the share of HBM4 shipments, as the unit weight value of HBM4 is expected to be significantly higher than HBM3 and HBM3E. Samsung previously predicted that HBM4 sales in the third quarter would increase more than threefold month-on-month and account for more than 60% of the company's total HBM sales in the second half of 2026. Bernstein believes that the current export data is basically in line with this guideline.

SK Hynix HBM4 is yet to be released, and the pace of subsequent shipments is the focus

Compared to Samsung, SK Hynix's current relevant export data performance is relatively moderate. In August, exports related to Chungcheongbuk-do and Gyeonggi-do, which are SK Hynix's HBM export agency indicators, increased 7% month-on-month, but fell 21% from May; the total export value for July and August also fell 21% from the same period in the previous quarter.

Based on historical data, Bernstein expects SK Hynix's HBM revenue for the third quarter to be about US$5.9 billion, down about 14% from the previous quarter.

However, the bank specifically emphasized that export data does not fully reflect SK Hynix's HBM revenue, so there is great uncertainty in predicting the above model. The current export data is relatively moderate, probably mainly related to the late shipment of SK Hynix HBM4. Once HBM4 enters the large-scale release stage, its monthly shipping pace may change significantly, and the predictive ability of historical models will also decline.

If estimated according to SK Hynix's historical quarterly model where shipments are more concentrated at the end of the quarter, HBM's revenue for the third quarter may have reached about 7.5 billion US dollars and achieved month-on-month growth. Meanwhile, the unit weight value of SK Hynix related products remained flat in August, and there are currently no significant changes brought about by large-scale HBM4 shipments. Bernstein predicts that with the official launch of HBM4, this indicator is expected to rise more clearly in the coming months.

Samsung's HBM share is expected to lead in stages, SK Hynix HBM4 will become the key to follow

Based on August export data, Bernstein believes that Samsung's HBM revenue growth rate in the third quarter may have surpassed SK Hynix, and the market share is also expected to take the lead in stages. This is consistent with the bank's previous judgment that Samsung HBM's competitive position continues to improve.

Samsung promoted HBM4 shipments earlier, which is one of the important reasons for the recent differences in the pace of growth between the two sides. However, SK Hynix HBM4 is expected to be gradually released later this year, and its market share is expected to be supported at that time.

Meanwhile, Bernstein predicts that the 2027 HBM contract price increase is expected to benefit SK Hynix and the wider memory chip industry at the same time. The regression models in the report also showed this difference. The third-quarter HBM revenue forecast corresponding to Samsung's export data for July and August has clearly exceeded Bernstein's previous expectations, while SK Hynix's current data shows that the impact of large-scale HBM4 releases has not been fully reflected.

HBM's room for price growth draws attention 2027 contract negotiations are the key

In addition to shipment volume, price is also an important factor in determining the future performance of HBM manufacturers. Bernstein pointed out that since the third quarter of 2025, the price of traditional storage products has risen significantly, but the increase in export value per weight, which reflects the HBM price trend, is relatively moderate.

The recent sharp increase in Samsung's related indicators may reflect the product portfolio upgrade brought about by the increase in the share of HBM4, which does not entirely mean that the price of HBM products of the same generation has risen by the same margin.

Currently, the storage vendor and customer are in negotiations on the 2027 HBM contract and price. Bernstein believes that the performance benefits brought about by higher HBM prices may gradually become apparent in the future. Meanwhile, the strong performance of traditional storage prices is expected to continue in the third quarter and further improve the revenue and profitability of major storage vendors.

Demand for advanced packaging to Malaysia's HBM exports rose to US$1.6 billion

Changes in South Korea's HBM export destinations are also worth watching. In August, South Korea's exports to Malaysia increased further 22% month-on-month to about US$1.6 billion, accounting for about 33% of all HBM-related exports. Over the past six months, the average monthly export value to Malaysia was about 900 million US dollars, while to Taiwan, China was about 3.7 billion US dollars.

Bernstein believes this part of the demand may be related to Intel's EMIB advanced packaging business. Malaysia has Intel's high-end packaging facilities, and some high-end server CPUs equipped with HBM can be packaged using EMIB technology.

However, the bank notes that the specific drivers behind this current increase in demand still need to be further observed. Judging from the supplier structure, about 40% of Samsung-related exports go to Malaysia, while the share of SK Hynix's agent regions to Malaysia is about 24%. Bernstein believes that the rapid growth in demand in Malaysia since this year has contributed significantly to Samsung's HBM business, and also reflects to a certain extent that Samsung HBM products are receiving wider customer demand.

Bernstein continues to be optimistic about the storage cycle

Overall, Bernstein believes that the August export data continues to show that Samsung's HBM business has strong growth momentum, and large-scale shipments of SK Hynix HBM4 have yet to be further reflected. The bank also warned that using regional export data to predict HBM revenue for a single company has certain limitations, so short-term export changes cannot simply be equated with the company's final financial performance. However, given the good correlation between relevant data and historical HBM revenue, it can still be used as an important leading indicator for observing industry trends.

Bernstein believes that factors such as rising traditional storage prices, more clear capital return policies, and long-term supply agreements (LTAs) are expected to continue to support the memory chip industry. Although the industry itself is still cyclical, the bank as a whole continues to be optimistic about the DRAM market and the medium- to long-term prospects of Samsung, SK Hynix (SKHY.US), and Micron Technology (MU.US).

As far as the current HBM competitive landscape is concerned, HBM4 is becoming the most critical variable in the next phase. With earlier releases, Samsung is showing a stronger growth momentum; as SK Hynix HBM4 gradually increases shipments later this year, the two companies will continue to compete for the next generation of high-bandwidth memory.

Meanwhile, the 2027 HBM contract price negotiations and whether AI server demand can continue to be strong will be important factors in determining the next phase of HBM market revenue growth and the prosperity of the storage industry.