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Eutelsat Communications (ENXTPA:ETL) Could Be 24% Below Fair Value As New Alliances Land

Simply Wall St · 3d ago

Recent client wins and alliances reshape the Eutelsat Communications story

Eutelsat Communications (ENXTPA:ETL) has just added two fresh data points for investors, expanding its role in Latin American video distribution and European thermal intelligence within a few days of each other.

The renewed multi year agreement with StarTV in Mexico keeps capacity booked on the EUTELSAT 117 West B satellite and widens usage across direct to home TV, educational projects and NVOD over IP. The partnership helps underline 117° West as a busy video neighborhood for broadcasters and pay TV operators in Mexico and across Latin America.

Two days earlier, the group signed with OroraTech GmbH to host thermal infrared payloads on its future Low Earth Orbit setup, with capacity reserved for 48 sensors and an option for 48 more. That arrangement is aimed at building a European focused thermal intelligence layer that can support wildfire tracking, critical infrastructure monitoring, environmental use cases, maritime awareness and security focused applications.

Both announcements arrived in September 2026, with a share price near €1.80 at the last close and a market value of about €2.1b. Over the past month the stock declined 5.3%, over the past 3 months it fell 26.1%, the past year shows a total return decline of 27.3%, and the past 5 years are down 72.9%.

For Eutelsat Communications, the fresh OroraTech alliance and the expanded StarTV deal arrive against a backdrop of fading momentum, with the share price delivering a small year-to-date gain of 0.5% but a 1-year total shareholder return decline of 27.3%.

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Eutelsat Communications now trades at a steep discount to both estimated fair value and analyst targets after a long slide in the share price. Is this caution grounded in the loss making profile, or is it overdone given the new deals?

Most Popular Narrative: 24% Undervalued

Eutelsat Communications closed at about €1.80, while the most followed valuation storyline points to a fair value of roughly €2.36 using a 12.52% discount rate and long term LEO plans as key inputs.

The planned procurement of 100 LEO satellites by the end of 2026 and the expected financing plan for further expansion reflect a forward-looking strategic positioning that anticipates market demand shifts towards LEO solutions, which is presented as supporting long-term revenue growth and improved competitive positioning.

See why 35 investors see Eutelsat Communications as 24% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of €2.36 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the narrative around Eutelsat Communications can easily crack if GEO video weakness keeps eroding backlog, or if heavy LEO and IRIS² capex strains cash and leverage.

Find out about the key risks to this Eutelsat Communications narrative.

Another angle on Eutelsat Communications’ valuation

The SWS DCF model paints a very different picture for Eutelsat Communications. On this view, the shares trade about 84.5% below an estimated future cash flow value of €11.57. That is a deep discount. It raises a simple question for investors: Is the market too cautious, or is the cash flow model too optimistic?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

ETL Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2026
ETL Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2026

Next Steps

Mixed messages in the Eutelsat Communications story so far. Act while sentiment is divided and weigh both sides of the ledger by reviewing the 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.