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TMX Group (TSX:X) Is Getting Fresh Attention, What Is Behind It?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

TMX Group (TSX:X) has tapped the bond market with two senior, unsecured issues totaling CA$700 million. This financing move matters for how you think about the stock’s balance sheet and capital plans.

TMX Group’s bond issuance lands at a time when momentum in the equity has been picking up, with the share price at CA$53.95 after a 12.28% 90-day share price return and a much stronger 3-year total shareholder return of 95.62%. This suggests investors have been rewarding the longer-term story more than the last 12 months.

Compare TMX Group’s bond funded momentum with other companies that pair balance sheet strength and equity potential using our curated list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (7 results).

TMX Group looks like a solid capital markets platform, now backed by fresh CA$700 million in bonds. The real test is whether that quality is already fully baked into today’s CA$53.95 share price.

Most Popular Narrative: 17% Undervalued

TMX Group’s most widely followed narrative pegs fair value at CA$65.03, which sits above the last close at CA$53.95 and frames the current bond raise as part of a bigger equity story built around earnings and revenue forecasts.

The accelerating expansion of TMX's Global Insights and Data Analytics division, including double-digit growth in recurring revenue segments like Trayport and VettaFi, is increasing high-margin, predictable income streams and improving overall net margins. TMX's strategic investments in digital platforms (for example, post-trade modernization, cloud-based architecture for trading systems, and flexible marketplace technology) directly address the evolving landscape of digital assets and tokenization. This provides a future-ready infrastructure and unlocks new sources of transactional and data revenue as digital securities adoption broadens.

See why 30 investors see TMX Group as 17% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of CA$65.03 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, shifts toward private funding and faster adoption of blockchain based trading could chip away at TMX Group’s listing, trading and clearing fee engine.

Find out about the key risks to this TMX Group narrative.

Another Take On TMX Group’s Valuation

The analyst narrative frames TMX Group as 17% undervalued at a fair value of CA$65.03, yet the current P/E of 24.6x tells a different story. That multiple sits well above the Canadian Capital Markets industry at 6.4x, peers at 18.3x, and even the fair ratio of 20.7x, which points to richer pricing and less margin for error. So is the share price paying you ahead of time for the growth case?

To see how that richer multiple stacks up against the underlying fundamentals, check the valuation breakdown in See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown..

TSX:X P/E Ratio as at Sep 2026
TSX:X P/E Ratio as at Sep 2026

Next Steps

Undervalued or already fully priced, TMX Group will not wait for you to catch up. Review the upside signals and pressure points yourself, then weigh them against the 4 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond TMX Group?

If TMX Group has your attention, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist with a few targeted searches that can surface fresh opportunities before the crowd.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.