Damo: Greater China Semiconductor's AI prospects improve, memory innovation “attracts” key industry ratings

Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Morgan Stanley released a research report saying that the views of the Greater China semiconductor industry are “attractive,” and that the core themes are AI semiconductor prospects and memory innovation. The bank expects the global semiconductor industry market to reach about 1.5 trillion US dollars by 2030, of which AI semiconductors will contribute about half.

The bank expects the total reach of the AI semiconductor market (TAM) to reach about US$753 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 30% from 2023 to 2030. According to an optimistic scenario driven by supply chain data, cloud AI semiconductor TAM could grow to US$485 billion by 2026.

The bank pointed out that the future of cloud semiconductors is brighter. The capital expenditure of the four major cloud service providers Amazon (AMZN.US), Google (GOOGL.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Meta (META.US) increased 87% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, and the ratio of capital expenditure to EBITDA has exceeded 70%. The bank estimates global cloud capital expenditure of nearly 1.4 trillion US dollars in 2027 (top 14 listed global cloud service providers, excluding sovereign AI), and memory accounts for about half of the total global cloud capital expenditure in 2027. Logic semiconductor foundry utilization rate may reach 80% in the second half of 2026; if memory and Nvidia AI GPU revenue are excluded, the growth rate of non-AI semiconductors is expected to decline in 2026. The bank also indicated that both DRAM and NAND are in short supply, and memory prices are high.

The bank said that as AI demand continues to be strong, TSMC (2330.TW) may expand CowOS production capacity to 260,000 tablets per month by 2028; HBM consumption is expected to reach about 44 billion GB in 2027, and Nvidia (NVDA.US) is still the main HBM consumer. Overall 2.5D packaging production capacity is still expected to increase by 50% year-on-year in 2028. The bank also sorted out memory innovation directions such as process migration, design, packaging, peripherals and integration, and estimated that the RAM innovation TAM after excluding HBM is about 25 billion US dollars.