The 50 billion target fell to fruition. Can CRM.US (CRM.US) draw another 63 billion US dollars of “flatbread” to convince Wall Street that the “AI replacement theory” is being exaggerated

The Zhitong Finance App notes that CRM.US (CRM.US) gave a long-term sales outlook that exceeded analysts' expectations, showing investors that in the face of competition brought about by artificial intelligence tools, this software company can still drive revenue growth.

Robin Washington, the company's chief operating officer and chief financial officer, said at the company's annual conference on Wednesday that the company's sales are expected to reach $63 billion in the fiscal year ending January 2030. This outlook includes revenue from Seflex's acquisition of Informatica, which was completed in November last year.

Based on aggregated data, analysts estimated the figure at $61.4 billion on average.

After the stock closed at $250.54 in New York, there was little change in after-hours trading. Since hitting a low on June 22, the stock has risen 67%, yet this year's cumulative decline is 5.4%.

As a leader in customer management software, Safrus is under pressure to prove that it can thrive in an age of ever-evolving AI products. At this week's conference, Safrus heavily promoted its partnership with well-known AI startup Anthropic PBC, which helped ease investors' concerns that the company faces direct competition.

Citigroup analyst Taylor Radke wrote in a report that communication with customers and partners at the conference was “clearly more constructive than a year ago, and they have greater confidence in SAFTSE's AI product strategy and execution.”

J.P. Morgan said that market concerns about SEFTSE being replaced by AI are “exaggerated,” and Agentforce and Data 360 are monetizing AI capabilities — the combined annualized recurring revenue (ARR) of the two is close to $3.9 billion, which is expected to exceed 5 billion by the end of fiscal year 2027 and 10 billion by the end of fiscal year 2030; the current valuation of corporate value/free cash flow of about 11 times lower than the average of its peers, and there is room for revaluation.

Currently, the market mainstream is still optimistic: 13 of the 19 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha gave a “buy” and 6 were neutral, with an average target price of $272; the 56 analysts compiled by Investing.com had an average target price of $273.37, and none gave a “sell.”

However, one historical fact that cannot be circumvented is that the company's 2022 Investor Day revenue target of $50 billion for fiscal year 2026 ultimately fell through (in fact, $41.5 billion). Wall Street generally said that whether the $63 billion “military warrant” can be fulfilled depends on whether subscription revenue can return to double-digit growth in the next 12-18 months, and when Agentforce's bookings will be converted into actual GAAP revenue and profit.