Citigroup: Retail sales of new energy vehicles in the Mainland are expected to fall 14% year on year in September, up 13% month on month

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Citibank released a research report saying that domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to drop 14% year on year and increase 13% month on month in September 2026. After verification by dealers, overall electric vehicle orders in the second week of September (September 7-13) increased by 32% on a weekly basis, 29% month-on-month to date, and decreased 16% month-on-month.

The bank pointed out that since retail sales of new energy vehicles in China rose only 6.2% month-on-month in August 2026 (equivalent to 0.5 times the 12.3% month-on-month increase in August 2025), demand is relatively weak this year. It is expected that the month-on-month increase in orders and retail sales in September will probably be lower than in September 2025. However, electric vehicle orders have increased 11% month-on-month since September. As a result, the bank expects retail sales of new energy vehicles in China to gradually improve to 13% month-on-month (equivalent to 0.75 times the month-on-month increase in September 2025) in September, corresponding to about 1.1 million units (Citi forecast), or 12.8% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2026; in the third quarter alone, it is expected to increase 9.7% month-on-month and 10.8% year-on-year.

Last week, by brand, Ideal Automobile-W (02015), Tesla, BYD (01211) and Geely Galaxy performed better than the industry average so far this month, up 71%, 23%, 20% and 14% respectively, driven by the launch of new models (New Ideal MEGA, BYD Sea Lion 08 and Galaxy TT) and Tesla's limited-time car purchase offers. The bank maintained a “buy” rating for BYD, Chery (09973), Geely (00175), and Zero Sports (09863).