CITIC Construction Investment: Freight rates diverged, crude oil freight rates rose sharply

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the shipping composite index rose seven times in a row to 3,662 points this week. The US, West, and East US rose 1.3% and 1.5% respectively, Europe and the Mediterranean fell, and South America fell; in terms of oil transportation, the US-Iran tanker war combined with the attack on the Saudi pipeline drove a sharp rise in freight rates. BDTI rose 43.1% to 4,015 points per week; TD3C rose close to 1 million US dollars/day; in terms of shipping, cape-type ships rushed back high and fell 7.7% per week, Panamanian Weakened slightly, and Super Handy, and Xiaoling moved steadily upward.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

Core ideas

1) Transportation: SCFI rose to 3,662 points in a row; differentiation continued, with the US West and the East US rising 1.3% and 1.5% respectively, Europe and the Mediterranean falling, and South America falling; congestion stranded more than 4 million TEUs, idle capacity was only 0.5%, and the Panama Canal quota was cut again; the National Day air flight plan was announced, and the pre-holiday cabin rate remained high.

2) Oil transportation: The US-Iran tanker war combined with the attack on the Saudi pipeline, and freight rates soared; BDTI rose 43.1% to 4,015 points per week, TD3C approaching 1 million US dollars/day, and the war almost reached 12.5% of the hull value; simultaneous revaluation of the US Gulf and West Africa; LR returns of refined oil products doubled and MR diverged.

3) Bulk transportation: The Cape type surged and fell, with a weekly average increase of 7.7%, and the weekend pallet slowed back; the Panamanian type was dragged down slightly by the slowdown in pallets and increased capacity; the super convenient and small portable were driven by inquiries from the Gulf of America and South America to a steady upward trend.

Industry dynamic information

Industry Overview: Judging from the performance of various transportation sub-sectors compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the overall transportation sector declined this week (September 7 to September 11). The shipping sector rose 1.38% and the port sector declined by 0.71% this week.

Shipping ports: freight rates are divided, and oil freight rates have risen sharply

Transportation: Transportation demand remains stable, and route trends diverge. The composite index has been rising for seven consecutive weeks, and the various routes have mixed ups and downs due to regional supply and demand and geographical factors. North American routes continued to rise, supported by peak season preparations, Panama Canal flow restrictions, and National Day air service expectations, and the US East Station stabilized the 10,000 yuan mark; European and Mediterranean routes were affected by interest rate hikes and weak demand, and market freight rates continued to fall; demand for South American routes lacked growth momentum and freight rates declined; and routes within Asia rose markedly, driven by pre-holiday replenishment.

Oil transportation: The international oil transportation market rose sharply this week. The largest mutual attack since the conflict between the US and Iran broke out. Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pipeline was attacked and closed, the Middle East crude oil sea and land export channel was interrupted at the same time, and the TD3C Middle East-China route was close to the 1 million dollars/day mark. Crude oil tanker routes were simultaneously revalued, and the US Gulf and West Africa followed suit with sharp increases. Refined oil tankers have strengthened significantly, revenue from LR long-haul routes has doubled, and regional differentiation of MR ship models continues.

Scattering: Cape-type ships rushed higher and fell, while Panama-type ships weakened slightly. Driven by concentrated inquiries from Australian miners and improvements in Atlantic pallets in the middle of the week, freight rates on some routes rose markedly. Rental terms once hit a new high during the year, and profits rebounded before the weekend as pallets slowed down. Panama-type ships are weakening at the same time. Although demand for coal is supported, new pallets have slowed down and usable capacity has increased. Driven by active inquiries in the Gulf of America and the east coast of South America, the performance of the Super Smart and Xiaoling boats was relatively steady.

risk analysis

Policy risks brought about by changes in the regulatory policy of the Global Liner Union; global trade risks as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict continues to escalate; risk of conflict in Iran; and a sharp rise in fuel costs.