Citigroup: Intelligent connected NEV planning favors industry integration in August, domestic NEV sales increased 6% month-on-month

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Citibank released a research report saying that on Friday (11th), the Mainland announced the “15th Five-Year Plan” for intelligent connected new energy vehicles. Key goals include reaching 70% of the new energy penetration rate for passenger cars and 40% for commercial vehicles in 2030, and setting strict energy consumption limits. The electricity consumption of pure electric vehicles is not higher than 11.5 kilowatt-hours per 100 kilometers, the average fuel consumption is not higher than 3.3 liters per 100 kilometers, and promoting large-scale commercialization of autonomous driving. The bank believes that the era of pure price-driven electrification competition is over; car companies must simultaneously master energy efficiency, self-developed artificial intelligence and intelligent driving capabilities, and software-defined vehicle architectures; ADAS will shift from selection to regulatory benchmarks, and autonomous driving safety must quantitatively surpass human driving performance; and in-vehicle AI and large-scale language models have also been officially promoted to national strategic industry priorities. The bank expects that the policy will promote industry integration. Future winners must also comply with energy consumption compliance, self-developed intelligent connectivity, and have sufficient capital for continuous research and development.

Citi also summarized the insurance retail trend in August, indicating that sales of domestic new energy passenger vehicles in China rose 6% month-on-month and fell 11% year over year, in line with the pace of the Passenger Transport Federation; the penetration rate of new energy rose to 64.3%. Among them, the penetration rate of pure electric, plug-in hybrid, and extended range increased by 1.7 percentage points, decreased 0.5 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points, respectively, and the penetration rate of fuel vehicles fell to 35.7%. Tesla (TSLA.US), Ideal Automobile-W (02015), Great Wall Motor (02333), Chery (09973), Xiaopeng Automobile-W (09868), and Zero Sports (09863) increased their share of the NEVs from month to month; the top five in the industry had a market share of 52.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from month to month and 4.8 percentage points year on year.

Geely Automobile (00175) leads the Chinese brand fuel vehicle market with a market share of 32.6%. Tesla's retail sales of China's domestic insurance fell 12% year on year, up 80% month on month to 50,047 units, and wholesale volume was 86,166 vehicles, up 4% year on year and 8% month on month; exports of 36,119 vehicles were up 39% year on year and 46% month on month. The bank estimates that at the end of August, passenger car inventories fell 0.1 months to 2.9 months, new energy inventories fell to 2 months, and fuel vehicle inventories fell to 4.5 months; Chinese brands' NEV market share was still at a high level of 84.6%, down 1.9 percentage points from month to month, while American brands were 11.5%, up 2.3 percentage points from month to month.