NiSource (NI) Updates Its Investor Deck, Has The Selloff Created Value?

NiSource (NI) has put fresh numbers and priorities in front of investors through its September 2026 Investor Deck. This provides an updated snapshot of this regulated utility’s scale, mix, and recent share performance.

Recent trading has been choppy for NiSource, with the share price down 12.77% over the past 90 days. At the same time, the latest deck refocuses attention on its regulated profile and capital plans, while long-term total shareholder returns of 64.30% over three years and 102.73% over five years point to a very different, more durable trajectory.

Compare NiSource’s regulated profile with other potential candidates by scanning our curated list of 11 resilient stocks with low risk scores that aim for steadier returns and more resilient balance sheets.

NiSource now trades at a double digit discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic estimates after that 12.77% slide. Is this caution about the utility’s outlook well placed, or has the price drifted past fair value?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.2% Undervalued

NiSource’s most followed narrative anchors fair value at $50.03 compared with a last close of $41.41, which puts a clear gap between the market price and those models.

Strong visibility into multi-year, rate-based capital expenditure ($19.4b base plan, plus $2b+ in upside or incremental projects) positions NiSource for 6 to 8% annual EPS growth and compound growth in regulated revenue.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what underpins that $50.03 figure? The narrative leans on steady earnings expansion, firmer margins, and a valuation multiple usually reserved for faster growing utilities.

Result: Fair Value of $50.03 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

Still, the NiSource story can break if heavy gas infrastructure spending runs into faster electrification or if key rate approvals slip and squeeze future returns.

Find out about the key risks to this NiSource narrative.

Another View: NiSource Through A Cash Flow Lens

The first narrative presents NiSource as 17.2% undervalued at $50.03, yet our DCF model tells a different story. On a future cash flow basis, the estimate lands at $36.58 per share. This sits below the current $41.41 price and points to an overvalued signal. Which lens do you trust more when cash and earnings send mixed messages?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out NiSource for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 32 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

Mixed messages on NiSource so far, or a clear pattern emerging in the data? Act quickly, review the full picture, and weigh the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond NiSource?

If NiSource has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist now with a few targeted searches that could inform how you allocate capital.

• Target resilience by scanning a list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (23 results) that highlights businesses with sturdy finances and room to handle tougher conditions.
• Hunt for value by reviewing a 32 high quality undervalued stocks that surfaces companies where fundamentals and price appear out of sync.
• Strengthen your income stream through a 6 dividend fortresses focused on sizeable yields backed by robust financial profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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