CITIC Securities believes that the traditional shipping cycle supply and demand analysis paradigm needs to be optimized and adjusted accordingly based on sentiment. “Supply chain stability and safety” replaced “efficiency and cost priority” in the era of globalization as the primary core element, and pricing power was clearly transferred to capacity controllers. As far as shipping is concerned, terminal congestion, blockage of key waterways, and fragmentation of trade flows are a continuous flashpoint. Capacity allocation is more flexible, high-frequency and high-density services bind high-quality customers, and regional container shipowners with outstanding long-term cost and efficiency advantages may be the first to benefit. VLCC's quarterly profit is expected to maintain a circular increase during the year. The Strait of Hormuz has been freed from a dualistic state. Detours and Gulf STS continued to consume effective capacity. Supply substitution and extended transportation distances were particularly evident in August, when the US-Iran conflict further intensified. The month-on-month increase in profit during the year is expected to slow down the traditional game of highest freight rates during the peak season. The shift in refined oil transportation capacity to the west has exacerbated supply constraints, and concerns are on the recovery of domestic exports and seasonal drivers. At the same time, pay attention to marginal price changes during the peak express delivery season and the opening of Xiongshang to traffic.

CITIC Securities believes that the traditional shipping cycle supply and demand analysis paradigm needs to be optimized and adjusted accordingly based on sentiment. “Supply chain stability and safety” replaced “efficiency and cost priority” in the era of globalization as the primary core element, and pricing power was clearly transferred to capacity controllers. As far as shipping is concerned, terminal congestion, blockage of key waterways, and fragmentation of trade flows are a continuous flashpoint. Capacity allocation is more flexible, high-frequency and high-density services bind high-quality customers, and regional container shipowners with outstanding long-term cost and efficiency advantages may be the first to benefit. VLCC's quarterly profit is expected to maintain a circular increase during the year. The Strait of Hormuz has been freed from a dualistic state. Detours and Gulf STS continued to consume effective capacity. Supply substitution and extended transportation distances were particularly evident in August, when the US-Iran conflict further intensified. The month-on-month increase in profit during the year is expected to slow down the traditional game of highest freight rates during the peak season. The shift in refined oil transportation capacity to the west has exacerbated supply constraints, and concerns are on the recovery of domestic exports and seasonal drivers. At the same time, pay attention to marginal price changes during the peak express delivery season and the opening of Xiongshang to traffic.