HYPE's $78 battle of life and death: CPI data will determine whether the $90 dream can continue

According to Woofun AI, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release August CPI (Consumer Price Index) data on September 11. This macro event is becoming a core variable in HYPE's price trend.

HYPE previously hit a high of $89.60 and then fell back to around $79 due to selling pressure. This path accurately touched the upper edge of the upward channel. The price then consolidated near the border, with no deep decline. Currently, it has retraced back to the $77 to $79 range, which was the double top resistance level in the previous period. The current HYPE quote is around $78.90, which is slightly above this resistance band. The market focus has moved from directly reaching new highs to whether buyers can establish a line of defense above $77 to $79 and then recover the $85 area to confirm that this is just a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.

Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that once support fails, the primary target below is the 50-day simple moving average at $68, followed by the 100-day moving average at $66. Although these two moving averages are still sloping upward, their position is low, reflecting the market's failure to pass the first support test after hitting channel resistance. The daily chart reveals that since the August low, HYPE has repeatedly hit higher lows, but the low of the RSI indicator has gradually declined, forming a hidden bullish divergence. The current RSI value is around 51, far below the overbought level when it hit $90. This structure, where momentum weakens but the trend maintains, provides technical support for potential increases, but only if the price stabilizes in the existing support zone.

In terms of macroeconomic expectations, according to a Reuters survey of economists, the market expects the overall CPI to increase 0.4% month-on-month and 0.2% for the core CPI; the overall and core CPI year-on-year increases for the whole year are expected to be 3.4% and 2.4%, respectively. Rich Privorotsky, head of Goldman Sachs (GS.US) Europe's One Delta trading business, pointed out in “Market Watch” magazine that if the core CPI increase remains around 0.25%, it will attract great attention from the market because it is directly related to interest rate trend expectations. Even a slight deviation between actual data and forecasts may cause investors to re-evaluate the Federal Reserve's policy path, causing sharp fluctuations.

For HYPE, the CPI report is not a specific event, but it will profoundly influence the risk appetite of cryptocurrencies and risky assets. Moderate data will help HYPE maintain the $77 to $79 range and restart progress towards the $85 area; if the data exceeds expectations, it may stimulate strong risk aversion and test the effectiveness of this support area. If HYPE can stabilize its position amidst fluctuations, it will confirm that the previous double top pattern has successfully transformed into a support base rather than a failed breakthrough. At that time, the possibility of another impact on the $89-$90 area will increase significantly. Until then, the stability of the support level was far more critical than the channel target.