Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, analysts at Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Department said that the blockage of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the tension in the Black Sea is coming at the same time as a super-strong El Niño that may set a record. Rising trade protectionism may amplify these impacts, and rising food prices may eventually turn into an interest rate issue. Goldman Sachs estimates that if countries set restrictions to cause the market to split and the effective market size to be reduced by half, the impact of the same supply shock on prices will double. This is why Goldman Sachs believes that the upward risk of agricultural products is much higher than reflected in inventory levels.

Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven, analysts at Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Department said that the blockage of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the tension in the Black Sea is coming at the same time as a super-strong El Niño that may set a record. Rising trade protectionism may amplify these impacts, and rising food prices may eventually turn into an interest rate issue. Goldman Sachs estimates that if countries set restrictions to cause the market to split and the effective market size to be reduced by half, the impact of the same supply shock on prices will double. This is why Goldman Sachs believes that the upward risk of agricultural products is much higher than reflected in inventory levels.