On Friday, the 2,701 contract, the main force for lithium carbonate, continued to dive in early trading. At one point, it fell nearly 10% during the intraday period, hitting a low of 12,8080 yuan/ton, falling below the 130,000 integer mark for the first time since February. The spot side collapsed simultaneously. According to Mysteel data, the price of MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate in early trading fell by 3,500 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, and the median price was 139,350 yuan/ton. Since the high of above 160,000 yuan at the end of August, the cumulative decline in the main lithium carbonate contract has exceeded 18%. Judging from the downward logic, last weekend, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network announced the launch of a new version of the inventory statistics caliber, including traders, cell factories, and other downstream links in the sample, and increasing production sources such as lithium extraction from bauxite slag and lithium extraction associated with tungsten ore. After the adjustment, the weekly lithium carbonate inventory data was revised at one time from more than 70,000 tons of the old caliber to 169,300 tons, a net increase of about 90,000 to 100,000 tons. The “continuous removal of inventory, shortage of stock” narrative of previous market transactions under the old caliber was instantly rewritten as “hidden inventory far exceeds expectations.” Increased pessimism in the market became the core driver of the market decline. Simultaneous pressure was applied on the supply side. Production schedules increased dramatically in September, and concentrated maintenance capacity returned. In August, some production lines for spodumene, lepidomite and salt lake were overhauled, and production was terminated and resumed after September. According to SMM data, the operating rate of lithium carbonate jumped to 52.01% this week, an increase of 2.92 percentage points over the previous month. The total output was 26,748 tons, an increase of 1502 tons over the previous month. The pyroxene process contributed the main increase. Based on changes in various ports, total domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by about 11% month-on-month in September. Furthermore, the market was echoed by multiple macroeconomic downsides. The ECB's hawkish interest rate hikes, the Middle East situation boosting oil prices, and US PPI data exceeded expectations, compounded by a break in long-term US bond yields and weakening Japanese yen hedging support. Today's non-ferrous metal sentiment has cooled down drastically, boosting the short-term decline in lithium carbonate.

Zhitongcaijing · 2d ago
On Friday, the 2,701 contract, the main force for lithium carbonate, continued to dive in early trading. At one point, it fell nearly 10% during the intraday period, hitting a low of 12,8080 yuan/ton, falling below the 130,000 integer mark for the first time since February. The spot side collapsed simultaneously. According to Mysteel data, the price of MMLC battery-grade lithium carbonate in early trading fell by 3,500 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, and the median price was 139,350 yuan/ton. Since the high of above 160,000 yuan at the end of August, the cumulative decline in the main lithium carbonate contract has exceeded 18%. Judging from the downward logic, last weekend, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network announced the launch of a new version of the inventory statistics caliber, including traders, cell factories, and other downstream links in the sample, and increasing production sources such as lithium extraction from bauxite slag and lithium extraction associated with tungsten ore. After the adjustment, the weekly lithium carbonate inventory data was revised at one time from more than 70,000 tons of the old caliber to 169,300 tons, a net increase of about 90,000 to 100,000 tons. The “continuous removal of inventory, shortage of stock” narrative of previous market transactions under the old caliber was instantly rewritten as “hidden inventory far exceeds expectations.” Increased pessimism in the market became the core driver of the market decline. Simultaneous pressure was applied on the supply side. Production schedules increased dramatically in September, and concentrated maintenance capacity returned. In August, some production lines for spodumene, lepidomite and salt lake were overhauled, and production was terminated and resumed after September. According to SMM data, the operating rate of lithium carbonate jumped to 52.01% this week, an increase of 2.92 percentage points over the previous month. The total output was 26,748 tons, an increase of 1502 tons over the previous month. The pyroxene process contributed the main increase. Based on changes in various ports, total domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to increase by about 11% month-on-month in September. Furthermore, the market was echoed by multiple macroeconomic downsides. The ECB's hawkish interest rate hikes, the Middle East situation boosting oil prices, and US PPI data exceeded expectations, compounded by a break in long-term US bond yields and weakening Japanese yen hedging support. Today's non-ferrous metal sentiment has cooled down drastically, boosting the short-term decline in lithium carbonate.