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TMX Group (TSX:X) Marks An Ex Dividend Date, Is The Stock Still Cheap?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

TMX Group (TSX:X) just passed an ex dividend date tied to a CA$0.26 cash payout, and also reported August financing activity that included 14 new TSX issuers and a very large month over month increase in capital raised.

Recent moves in TMX Group’s share price have been softer, with the stock down over the past week and month even as the 90 day share price return is up 3.63% and the three year total shareholder return sits at 87.36%.

Scan how TMX Group compares with other market operators and exchanges by reviewing our curated list of 9 high quality undiscovered gems that are attracting fresh capital and investor attention.

TMX Group now offers a mix of softer recent returns, a fresh dividend and a sizeable gap to analyst price targets. Does that balance still reward buyers at today’s valuation, or has most of the upside already been used?

Most Popular Narrative: 19.6% Undervalued

TMX Group’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at CA$65.03, above the recent CA$52.31 close, so the story hinges on what is driving that gap.

The accelerating expansion of TMX's Global Insights and Data Analytics division, including double-digit growth in recurring revenue segments like Trayport and VettaFi, is increasing high-margin, predictable income streams and improving overall net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why this recurring revenue push supports a higher price tag for TMX Group? The narrative leans on rising high-margin data, firmer profitability, and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious which specific growth and margin assumptions sit underneath that CA$65.03 figure and how they connect to today’s share price story?

Result: Fair Value of CA$65.03 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

Still, TMX Group’s story can change quickly if private markets keep pulling listings away, or if larger global exchanges squeeze its share of big IPOs.

Find out about the key risks to this TMX Group narrative.

Another View: TMX Group looks expensive on earnings

On the other side of the story, TMX Group trades on a P/E of 23.9x compared with 18.1x for peers and 6.3x for the wider Canadian Capital Markets group. The fair ratio sits at 20.7x, which points to richer pricing and raises the question of how much optimism is already in the CA$52.31 share price.

For investors weighing this richer earnings multiple against the growth story, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

TSX:X P/E Ratio as at Sep 2026
TSX:X P/E Ratio as at Sep 2026

Next Steps

Sentiment around TMX Group is clearly mixed, so do not wait for consensus to harden before stress testing the assumptions that matter to you and weighing the 4 key rewards

Looking for more TMX Group style investment ideas?

If you want to keep sharpening your edge beyond TMX Group, use the Simply Wall Street screener to identify new opportunities earlier.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.