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OceanaGold (TSX:OGC) Following Macraes Phase 4 Filing Has The Bull Case Changed

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

OceanaGold (TSX:OGC) just filed its Macraes Phase 4 application under New Zealand’s Fast-track Approvals Act 2024, a move that could keep the long-running Macraes operation going into the late 2030s.

Recent price action suggests investors are responding to this Macraes update. The share price is now at CA$42.93, with a 90 day share price return of 21.99% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 53.31%. This points to building momentum around OceanaGold’s longer term story.

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After a 53.31% one year return and fresh optimism around Macraes, the real tension now is simple: Is most of OceanaGold’s re rating already in the rear view mirror, or does valuation still leave meaningful upside on the table?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.3% Undervalued

According to the most followed OceanaGold narrative, a fair value of CA$65.33 is set against the current CA$42.93 share price, which implies a sizeable valuation gap in that framework.

OceanaGold represents a deep-value mid-tier gold producer trading at a discount to peers due to its elevated cost profile and mixed jurisdiction exposure. We believe the company offers re-rating potential from cost normalization, strong leverage to gold prices, and visible free cash flow generation.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why this framework lands on a higher fair value for OceanaGold? The core of the case blends a higher earnings run-rate, a healthier profit margin profile, and a future valuation multiple more commonly associated with larger producers. Curious which operating assumptions and cost curve shifts sit behind those numbers? The full narrative lays out the model step by step without you needing a spreadsheet.

Result: Fair Value of CA$65.33 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

Still, the OceanaGold story can break if all in sustaining costs stay elevated, or if permitting and jurisdiction issues slow projects like Macraes or Didipio.

Find out about the key risks to this OceanaGold narrative.

Next Steps

Plenty of investors are leaning optimistic on OceanaGold right now, so consider moving quickly and stress test the numbers yourself by walking through the 4 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond OceanaGold?

If you only stop at OceanaGold, you risk missing other opportunities that might fit your goals even better, so keep your research momentum going with a broader search.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.