BTC weekly dilemma: can spot break through the 79600 and 82800 double resistance?

According to Woofun AI, Bitcoin is facing a key resistance test at the weekly level, and the central suspense in the market is whether spot buyers can dominate breaking through the double barrier of $79,600 and $82,800 on the Bitstamp chart. The current price structure shows that if the bulls cannot effectively overcome these two lines of defense, the rebound momentum will be difficult to transform into a trend increase, and the market is at a critical point in choosing the direction.

Judging from an in-depth technical analysis, the 50-week simple moving average formed the first substantial pressure level. The moving average is in a downward trend and is around $79,600. At the time of drawing the chart, the price of Bitcoin is about $1,100 below this level, which means that the moving average price is approximately 1.4% higher than the actual price in the market. If Bitcoin's weekly closing price is above this average line, its price will return to an important long-term trend line, but this is not a complete breakthrough, because the resistance that previously prevented Bitcoin from rebounding in May still exists.

The second line of resistance ranges from approximately $82,000 to $82,800, which also includes the May high of around $82,790. Bitcoin's technical pattern will improve only if it can break through this 50-week simple moving average, but for the rebound to enter a stronger phase, it still needs to break through the previous high. Currently, Bitcoin's weekly RSI (Relative Strength Index) is in a high range of more than 50 points, while the value of this indicator was between 50 and 52 when it experienced resistance in May. Now Bitcoin is once again approaching the same price zone, but its momentum indicators are higher than during the previous rebound period.

However, this situation is not a typical bullish divergence — a bullish divergence in the usual sense requires the price to form a lower low, while the RSI indicator shows a higher low. Bitcoin's current trend is actually retreating towards the previous resistance area with stronger relative momentum.

Although the RSI indicator is still below 70, it does not constitute an independent buying signal, nor is there any guarantee that the price will rise further. The point is to analyze market conditions by comparing the strength of the two different upward paths. At the time of drawing this chart, the current weekly K-line still has more than four days of trading time, so both the price and RSI indicators may change before the market closes, so these unfinished indicator data should not be taken as confirmation signals.

Furthermore, the RSI indicator cannot indicate whether Bitcoin's rebound was driven by direct purchases or leveraged contracts. To distinguish this, it is necessary to further observe the trading conditions of the spot market and the derivatives market.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, market structure analysis reveals the current state of derivatives dominant trading. According to CoinGlass data, the trading volume of Bitcoin futures within 24 hours was about US$61.6 billion, while the volume of the spot market was only about US$4 billion, which means that the trading activity of the futures market was about 15.4 times that of the spot market during the same period. This difference indicates that most trading activity occurred in the derivatives market.

However, this does not mean that investors participating in the transaction are optimistic about whether the price will rise or fall, because there are buyers and sellers in every futures transaction. Currently, the value of Bitcoin's open contracts is about $53.2 billion. This figure represents the size of derivatives positions that have not yet been closed, but without comparison in terms of time, it is impossible to determine whether the degree of use of leverage has increased recently. Taken together, these data show that Bitcoin's rebound occurred in a market dominated by derivatives trading. Although there are a large number of open positions, there are not many signs that demand in the spot market is also growing at the same rate.

However, this does not mean that this upward trend cannot continue; it's just that if investors using leverage choose to exit the market, then this breakthrough is more likely to reverse. If the price of Bitcoin can break through the two barriers of $79,600 and $82,800, and the volume of transactions in the spot market also rises, then it can be more strongly proven that direct purchases are driving Bitcoin to show stronger weekly upward momentum.

In terms of tracking capital flows, the performance of US spot ETFs has fluctuated markedly recently. In the three trading days from September 2 to September 4, Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US market achieved a cumulative net inflow of about 1.01 billion US dollars. The day with the highest inflow of capital was September 3. There was a total inflow of about 7309 million US dollars on that day. This amount accounted for nearly 73% of the total net inflow for these three days, indicating that capital inflows are extremely concentrated in terms of time. There was then a reversal in capital flow. According to SoSoValue statistics, the net outflow on September 8 was approximately US$46.7 million. Although this outflow did not eliminate previous buying demand, it interrupted the previous good upward momentum before Bitcoin broke through any weekly resistance level.

If Bitcoin has achieved a breakthrough and new capital inflows at the same time, then it means that spot ETFs in the US market are providing support for this rise; if capital outflows continue, then the support obtained by this breakthrough will weaken.

Scenario deductions and conclusions suggest that the first positive sign will be that Bitcoin's weekly closing price will be stable above $79,600. If the price only briefly touches this average within a single trading day, it is not equally significant, as Bitcoin is likely to fall below this average again before the K line closes.

If the price stays above the average for the next few trading days, Bitcoin will have a chance to challenge the May resistance level again. If Bitcoin closes above $79,600 and then there is an immediate downward trend, then the first attempt to break through was unsuccessful. And if the weekly closing price can be above $82,800, it means that Bitcoin has broken through the May high and the 50-week simple moving average.

If the price continues to stay above this area during the next trading week, it is more proof that the previous resistance level has turned into a support level. If the trading volume of the spot market increases at this time, and at the same time, the net inflow of ETFs reappears, then the credibility of this breakthrough will further increase.

However, these conditions do not guarantee that the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise, but at least it indicates that this rise was supported by forces other than derivatives trading. If the price is suppressed again and the weekly closing price falls to around $77,600, it will weaken Bitcoin's rebound momentum and indicate that buyers are unable to maintain the current price range. At that point, the $75,700 to $76,000 area will be the next significant support level.

If the price falls further, the midpoint of the price range reached by the most recent increase — around $71,800 — will also be tested. The $64,000-$66,000 area where the 200-week simple moving average is located will only become significant after the price falls more sharply. Short-term intraday price fluctuations should not be used alone to determine the possibility of those weekly declines. Although Bitcoin's RSI indicator is currently at a high level, which may make this rebound more promising than the May rally, the price of Bitcoin is still below the 50-week simple moving average and previous highs. Current trading volume data also shows that the derivatives market dominates overall trading, and the latest round of ETF trading also ended with capital outflows. To form a bullish trend, Bitcoin's weekly closing price needs to be stable above these two resistance levels. At the same time, it is also necessary for the spot market to be more active in trading activity, and for the ETF market to pick up again. Until this is achieved, strong upward momentum can only be viewed as an improvement in market conditions rather than a confirmation sign of a lasting breakthrough.