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Autodesk (ADSK) Could Be 35% Undervalued Following Its $500 Million Bond Raise

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Autodesk (ADSK) has just raised roughly US$500 million through a fixed income offering of 5.050% senior unsecured notes due September 15, 2029. This provides investors with fresh information about its capital structure.

The equity story has been moving in the opposite direction to this fresh funding. Autodesk’s share price is down 19.3% over the past 30 days and 27.9% year to date, while the 1 year total shareholder return has fallen 36.2%. This suggests that momentum has faded despite recent earnings and guidance updates, as well as ongoing buyback activity.

Compare Autodesk’s recent bond raise and share price slide with a curated set of other software and tech stocks by scanning the 49 high quality undervalued stocks for potential opportunities with different momentum profiles.

With Autodesk shares under pressure despite earnings and a new bond issue, the choice is stark. Does stepping in after a 1 year slide make sense, or does patience for an even cheaper entry look more appealing once valuation is on the table?

Most Popular Narrative: 35.1% Undervalued

Autodesk’s most followed narrative points to a fair value of $318.53 against a last close of $206.62. This frames a sizable valuation gap for investors to assess.

Accelerating adoption of cloud-based platforms such as Autodesk Construction Cloud and Fusion 360 and ongoing rollout of subscription and SaaS models are increasing recurring revenue, improving revenue visibility, and enhancing net margin stability due to higher operating leverage and sales efficiency improvements.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue mix, margin profile, and earnings step up this narrative assumes for Autodesk? The key inputs are bolder than many might expect.

Result: Fair Value of $318.53 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

Still, the narrative can break if open source and lower cost rivals squeeze Autodesk’s pricing power, or if AI heavyweights outpace its product roadmap.

Find out about the key risks to this Autodesk narrative.

Next Steps

If this Autodesk narrative feels mixed to you, that is the signal to interrogate the numbers yourself and move fast while sentiment is unsettled. To see what others view as the most attractive positives on the table, review the 5 key rewards.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Autodesk?

Consider exploring a range of opportunities across the wider market to help balance your overall risk and return profile rather than focusing on a single ticker.

  • Hunt for underappreciated quality by scanning 49 high quality undervalued stocks, which highlight companies that combine solid fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect their underlying strength.
  • Explore steadier income potential by reviewing 6 dividend fortresses, which focus on higher yielding payouts from companies with more resilient track records.
  • Prioritise resilience and capital preservation by checking 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores, which screen for businesses with lower overall risk profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.