According to a research report published by J.P. Morgan Chase, CICC's A shares and H shares fell 3% and 7% respectively last day, outperforming A-share and H-share brokerage peers by about 2 percentage points and 5 percentage points. The bank believes that the weakness is mainly driven by technical factors related to the merger, rather than deteriorating fundamentals. The current level can be viewed as a buying opportunity; the impact of event-driven capital flows should gradually subside as the transaction nears completion, and the bank expects CICC's operating trend in the third quarter to be stronger than that of its peers. CICC has received approval from the Securities Regulatory Commission to merge with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities. The bank estimates that the merger will drag down earnings per share and return on equity by high to low double-digit percentages, but the return on equity is expected to rise back to 11.9% in 2027, as the synergy effect of the merger can offset the dilution. Third-quarter results may be a catalyst, benefiting from relatively low retail brokerage exposure, continued strong institutional business, and investment income related to Changxin Technology. The bank reaffirmed the “overholding” rating of CICC. The target price for H shares remained at HK$30, and regarded it as the sector's first choice.

Zhitongcaijing · 3d ago
According to a research report published by J.P. Morgan Chase, CICC's A shares and H shares fell 3% and 7% respectively last day, outperforming A-share and H-share brokerage peers by about 2 percentage points and 5 percentage points. The bank believes that the weakness is mainly driven by technical factors related to the merger, rather than deteriorating fundamentals. The current level can be viewed as a buying opportunity; the impact of event-driven capital flows should gradually subside as the transaction nears completion, and the bank expects CICC's operating trend in the third quarter to be stronger than that of its peers. CICC has received approval from the Securities Regulatory Commission to merge with Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities. The bank estimates that the merger will drag down earnings per share and return on equity by high to low double-digit percentages, but the return on equity is expected to rise back to 11.9% in 2027, as the synergy effect of the merger can offset the dilution. Third-quarter results may be a catalyst, benefiting from relatively low retail brokerage exposure, continued strong institutional business, and investment income related to Changxin Technology. The bank reaffirmed the “overholding” rating of CICC. The target price for H shares remained at HK$30, and regarded it as the sector's first choice.