The bullish signal is flashing! Bitcoin recreates a “golden cross”: $3.8 billion ETF funds are pouring in. Historical rules point to $100,000 at the end of the year?

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the Bitcoin market has just triggered a bullish signal that technical analysts regard as the most emblematic bullish signal. On September 8, Bitcoin's 50-day exponential moving average officially crossed the 200-day moving average, forming what cryptocurrency traders call the “Golden Cross” (Golden Cross). This is the first time since November 2025 that this technical form has been reproduced.

Bitcoin was hovering in the critical range of $78,000 to $80,000 as the golden cross formed. Since mid-August, the Bitcoin price has accumulated a cumulative increase of about 25%, and in late August it hit a recent high of $81,265. At the same time, institutional capital is pouring in at an unprecedented rate — US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $3.8 billion over the past three weeks, setting the strongest institutional buying record since 2026.

The golden cross: a widely watched but “uneven” signal

The golden cross is one of the oldest technical indicators in the financial market. When the short-term moving average crosses the long-term moving average, it indicates that recent price momentum has surpassed the medium- to long-term trend, and is often interpreted as a sign that the market may move from weakness to strength.

However, this signal's historical performance in the Bitcoin market has not been one-sided bullish. Since 2012, Bitcoin has accumulated 12 gold crosses. Among them, the average increase of the nine times that can measure three-month returns was 24.9%, but only 3 were able to remain unbroken by the “death cross” (short-term moving average crossing the long-term moving average) for a full year. The average one-year increase of these 3 times was as high as 250%.

This means that the Golden Cross has performed well within three months, but the situation where it can fully last up to a year is an exception, which is not the case. Technical analysts generally acknowledge that since moving averages are calculated based on past price smoothing, this signal usually only appears after most of the market has already occurred, and is essentially a lagging indicator.

However, the short-term performance of the three recent Golden Crosses is quite outstanding: up 50% after September 2021, 45% after October 2023, and around 60% after October 2024. If the three-month average increase in history is estimated at 24.9%, the end of the year may point to the range of 99,000 to 100,000 US dollars by the end of the year, using the current 79,000-80,000 US dollars as a benchmark.

USDT market share “death cross”: capital is flowing back from stablecoins to risky assets

What is different about this golden cross is that another key market indicator is simultaneously strengthening the bullish signal — the USDT market dominance rate is approaching a “death cross,” that is, its 50-day EMA is about to fall below the 200-day EMA.

USDT market share measures the share of the value of all Tether coins in circulation in the entire crypto market. A continued decline in this indicator usually means a rise in risk appetite: funds are being transferred out of “cash” stablecoins into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Historically, fluctuations in the USDT dominance rate have often marked a major trend change in Bitcoin.

This combination of signals — Bitcoin's gold cross superimposed by USDT's death cross — is seen as more compelling bullish evidence in this round of rebound than a single technical pattern.

The “ammo depot” of institutional funding: $3.8 billion ETF inflows and IBIT's dominance

The financial support for this round of gains is also worth paying attention to. The net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past three weeks was $3.8 billion. Among them, the net inflow for the week ending September 4 was about 987 million US dollars, the massive inflow of 731 million US dollars last Thursday, and slowed to 175 million US dollars on Friday.

Funding is highly concentrated on BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). As of September 4, IBIT's net assets reached US$62.52 billion, accounting for 62% of the industry's total volume of US$101.3 billion. Since its establishment in January 2024, IBIT's cumulative net inflow has reached US$63.9 billion, exceeding the total net inflow of US$55.5 billion across the Bitcoin ETF category.

This highly concentrated funding structure means that as IBIT continues to attract money, the entire category maintains a net inflow; but once IBIT turns to outflow, the entire category may turn into a net outflow within a single day — as shown when the category recorded an outflow of $236.5 million on September 1. Marginal demand for ETF funds is increasingly dominated by a single fund, which is both an engine for growth and an amplifier for potential pullbacks.

Resistance to a rebound: $83,000 “selling pressure wall” and macro headwinds

Despite positive signals from both technical and financial aspects, Bitcoin's upward path is not an easy one.

On-chain data shows that there is a huge selling pressure wall around $83,000. Coin holding address groups of all sizes have fully switched to net sales for the first time since the beginning of June, and whales and other coin holders have begun to increase allocations after the recent rise. Bitcoin's two recent shocks in the $81,000-$82,000 range have faced resistance and retreated.

The macro level also poses pressure. Non-farm payrolls in the US increased by 162,000 people in August, far exceeding expectations, driving the market's bet on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in September to 58%-60%. Strong employment data reduces the reason for interest rate cuts, and Bitcoin, as a risky asset, is often under pressure in a high interest rate environment.

According to CoinGlass data, the volume of unclosed Bitcoin futures contracts on centralized exchanges is close to US$54.42 billion — highly leveraged positions mean that once the direction is reversed, it may trigger chain liquidation.

Outlook: The “green light” on the technical side and the “yellow light” on the fundamental side

Bitcoin's golden cross and the death of USDT's market share make up the most convincing technical combination in this round of rebound. The inflow of $3.8 billion in ETF institutional capital provided a real financial endorsement for this signal.

However, historical data shows that the “shelf life” of the Golden Cross is unstable — only 3 out of 12 signals lasted a full year. The $83,000 selling pressure wall, rising expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, and the highly concentrated ETF funding structure are all resistances that cannot be ignored in the short term.

Technical analysts have marked the current $78,700 area as a key decision point: if the weekly line closes above it, control will return to buyers; if it falls below again, it may reinforce the revised argument that a further decline of $78,700 is likely to reinforce the revised argument that the $78,700 decline will be strengthened. The US CPI data for September 11 and the FOMC meeting on September 15-16 will be the next major catalyst to determine the short-term direction.

The golden cross has given a “green light” on the technical side, but macro fundamentals and market structures are still flashing a “yellow light”. Amidst the intertwining of signal confirmation and resistance testing, Bitcoin's next journey is far more complicated than a simple cross pattern.