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Is Saia (SAIA) Undervalued As Freight Volumes Rise In July And August?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Saia (SAIA) drew fresh attention after releasing preliminary operating data for July and August 2026, showing year over year gains in less than truckload shipments, tonnage and weight per shipment across both months.

Saia’s share price has reacted positively to the volume update, with a 1-day share price return of 3.51% and a 7-day gain of 7.94%. However, the stock is still down 22.81% over 90 days and 1.72% over 30 days, while the 1-year total shareholder return of 16.88% points to stronger longer term momentum than the 3-year total shareholder return, which is down 15.68%.

Scan beyond Saia and identify other freight and logistics players showing strong volume momentum with our curated list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (24 results)

Saia’s stronger freight volumes now sit alongside a share price that is still working off a steep 90 day pullback. Is this latest bounce more about improving operations, or a reset in sentiment that has gone too far?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.3% Undervalued

Saia’s latest close at $357.94 sits below the most followed fair value estimate of $438.19, which is built on a detailed long term earnings and margin view.

The ongoing expansion and maturation of Saia's national terminal network, combined with network densification, is starting to unlock cost efficiencies and higher shipment volumes in new and legacy markets. This is positioning the company for top-line revenue growth and improved operating margins as these facilities move toward scale.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative..

Want to see what kind of revenue curve and profit margin profile need to line up for that valuation gap to close? The full narrative spells out the growth runway, the earnings bridge, and the pricing multiple that together underpin that $438.19 fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $438.19 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

Still, Saia’s story can break if muted shipment trends or higher operating costs persist, since weaker demand or stickier expenses could cap the upside in that fair value case.

Find out about the key risks to this Saia narrative.

Another View: Saia Looks Expensive On Cash Flows

That 18.3% “undervalued” story on Saia runs into a very different conclusion when the SWS DCF model is used. On projected future cash flows, the shares at $357.94 sit well above an estimated value of $150.46, which points to an overvalued reading instead.

Two methods, two very different answers. It leaves a simple question for investors: which set of assumptions about Saia feels more realistic to you?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

SAIA Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2026
SAIA Discounted Cash Flow as at Sep 2026

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Saia for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 49 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Next Steps

With Saia pulling investors in two very different valuation directions, it is worth moving fast and checking the underlying assumptions for yourself. To see what the data says about the optimism priced into the story, start by reviewing the 3 key rewards.

Looking for more Saia style investment ideas?

Do not stop at Saia. Broaden your watchlist now with targeted stock ideas built from real data so you are not relying on headlines alone.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.