AlphaValue/Baader Europe Cuts Swedbank Price Target Amid 'More Cautious" Macroeconomic Stance

11:59 AM EDT, 09/08/2026 (MT Newswires) -- AlphaValue/Baader Europe lowered its price target for Swedbank (SWED-A.ST) as it adopted a "more cautious" stance on the Swedish banking group's macroeconomic environment amid the current global economic, fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties. The sell-rated stock's price target was changed to 312 kronor from 331 kronor, according to a Tuesday note. "We have decreased our [target price] on the back of our negative 2027 EPS revision, as well as on the back of our trimmed dividend and buyback projections. We see lower capital generation in 2027 as well as higher RWA consumption over the 2026-2028 period (RWA is seen 12% higher than previously forecast as of end-2027) on the back of a higher lending growth than previously projected as well as asset quality sensitivity," analysts said. "We had forecast 70% dividend payout ratios over the period, but we are now not pricing any buyback programme before 2028, thus leading to an increase in our share count vs our previous estimates, leading to a reduction in our EPS together with results revisions." The research firm said its projected EPS for 2026 was "unchanged," while the estimate for 2027 was reduced by 14.2% to 25.8 kronor. However, stagflationary pressures are anticipated to subside over the coming quarters. "We then see a recovery taking shape into 2028, with accelerating lending growth and elevated rates feeding into continued NII growth, fee income recovering, especially in AM, while the bottom-line should be supported by synergies on costs (down on an absolute basis vs 2027), and the cost of risk should normalise to 8bp," analysts added. "Under our new projections, we see Swedbank achieving its 15% 2027 target one year later in 2028."