Goldman Sachs's latest research report indicates that although the global agricultural market is entering 2026 with relatively sufficient inventory, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea situation and the triple risk of “super El Niño” are rising at the same time. Coupled with the increasing internalization of countries' trade policies, agricultural product prices are facing a greater risk of rising at the end. Goldman Sachs believes that the greater risk comes from trade protection amplifying the impact. Since 2020, the average number of new agricultural trade restrictions has roughly doubled, and export bans and hoarding of stored grain may take away international supply far exceeding the scale of actual production cuts. If the market is cut due to trade barriers, the price impact of the same supply shock could double in a regional market where the size is reduced by half.

Goldman Sachs's latest research report indicates that although the global agricultural market is entering 2026 with relatively sufficient inventory, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea situation and the triple risk of “super El Niño” are rising at the same time. Coupled with the increasing internalization of countries' trade policies, agricultural product prices are facing a greater risk of rising at the end. Goldman Sachs believes that the greater risk comes from trade protection amplifying the impact. Since 2020, the average number of new agricultural trade restrictions has roughly doubled, and export bans and hoarding of stored grain may take away international supply far exceeding the scale of actual production cuts. If the market is cut due to trade barriers, the price impact of the same supply shock could double in a regional market where the size is reduced by half.