Jibang Consulting: Global smartphone production reached 275 million units in the second quarter, down 8% year on year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's latest mobile phone industry survey, global smartphone production reached 275 million units in the second quarter of 2026, down 8% from the same period last year. The decline was lower than the original forecast, and the overall performance was superior to market expectations.

According to TrendForce Jibang Consulting's analysis, this season's better-than-expected performance is mainly driven by two factors: first, some consumers are concerned that the increase in memory prices will continue to drive up the cost of the whole machine, causing another wave of price increases in 2027, so they chose to buy in advance; second, some brands previously lowered their production plans excessively due to rising memory costs, but now they are making compensatory adjustments as market conditions stabilize.

Driven by the above effects, TrendForce Jibang Consulting raised the smartphone production forecast for the full year 2026 from 1.05 billion to 1.07 billion, and the annual decline was reduced from 16% to 14%.

TrendForce Jibang Consulting emphasized that the short-term recovery in market conditions does not mean that the market has entered a real recovery, but rather a short-term phenomenon due to early consumption effects. As this buyout subsides, and memory contract prices are expected to continue to rise in 2027, smartphone production performance may face some adjustment pressure next year.

Looking at the production performance of major brands in the second quarter of 2026, Samsung (Samsung) benefited from the effects of the late release of new flagship models. The total production volume in a single quarter was 62 million units, an annual increase of about 7%, and ranked first in the market. In order to hedge against high memory costs, Samsung significantly increased the proportion of ODM production in the middle and low end product lines, and maintained price competitiveness through the flexible design and manufacturing cost advantages of ODM factories.

The second-largest Apple (Apple, AAPL.US) produces about 52 million units, an annual increase of about 14%. This is mainly due to the proper pricing strategy of the iPhone 17 series, which led to impressive sales performance in the first three quarters. However, the price of the upcoming iPhone 18 series is bound to rise, and whether it will affect sales momentum in the future will be the focus of market observation.

OPPO, Xiaomi (Xiaomi, 01810), and vivo ranked third to fifth in production in the second quarter, with about 30 million units, 29 million units, and 21 million units, respectively. The three major brands take maintaining basic market share as the main axis, giving priority to stabilizing profit levels. Among them, OPPO and vivo account for a very high share of sales in the Chinese market.

Transsion (Transsion) produced close to 20 million units in the second quarter, with an annual decrease of about 27%, ranking sixth in the market. Since the main focus of the brand is entry-level and low-end phones, and the inventory of low-cost memories is relatively limited, it is greatly affected by this wave of rising memory prices.

Short-term recovery is not a trend reversal; the future market remains to be seen

Overall, TrendForce Jibang Consulting believes that the current annual production forecast revision mainly reflects the phased effects of early consumption and production plan reimbursement, and is not a sign of substantial improvement in market fundamentals. As this wave of buying subsides, and memory cost pressure is expected to continue until 2027, subsequent trends in the global smartphone industry still need to be closely watched.