Lottomatica Kept at Buy as BofA Highlights Online Growth Targets Post-Cirsa Enterprises Deal

02:56 AM EDT, 09/08/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BofA Global Research affirmed its investment case for Lottomatica Group (LTMC.MI), as it laid out its online growth goals following the announcement of its proposed cross-border merger with Spanish gaming and entertainment company Cirsa Enterprises (CIRSA.MC). "In particular, LTMC now quantifies that it can grow Cirsa's online EBITDA ~EUR100m above current expectations by 2030E. This is reassuring and meaningful as it equates to ~6% of the proforma 2030E EPS, though the mere fact that this figure is disclosed a few days before the initial announcement could raise questions. We laid out earlier today that we see strategic merits of the deal, but will take several years before being visible. However, financially, the deal is compelling given the relatively low multiple paid and attractive growth [low double-digit EBITDA compound annual growth rate] and capital returns (>50% of market cap) from the combined assets," analysts said Monday. The research firm said the Milan-listed gaming operator targets 200 million euros to 300 million euros in incremental online EBITDA within three years post-closing by applying its Italian operational playbook to Cirsa. On top of existing cost synergies, analysts said reaching this guidance would boost 2030 projected EPS by 7% versus BofA's preliminary pro forma estimate. "Management's strong [track record] in Italy gives confidence but we also flag that gaming is inherently a volatile industry from a competitive perspective and subject to unexpected changes in taxation. We are also unsure if this is purely an organic uplift or if it assumes bolt-on M&A is carried out along the way," the note said. Against this backdrop, BofA maintained its buy rating and price objective of 31 euros on the stock.