Daiwa: Sinotruk raised (03808) to “buy” target price to HK$49.2

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Daiwa released a research report saying that Sinotruk (03808) management participated in the bank's non-trading roadshow last day (7th). The bank believes that overseas demand is strong, and is expected to further expand its market share from 2026 to 2028. The rating was raised from “outperforming the market” to “buy”, and the target price for 12 months was raised sharply from HK$29.4 to HK$49.2. In response to strong overseas demand and the potential to further expand market share, the 2026-2027 revenue forecast was raised by 17% to 20%. The bank's 2026-2028 earnings per share forecast is 5% higher than market consensus.

The report cites management guidelines. In 2026, the industry's domestic sales volume of heavy trucks will be about 800,000 to 850,000 units, and overseas sales will exceed 400,000 vehicles; the company's domestic market will account for about 19% of the target, and overseas sales will exceed 200,000 vehicles. Domestic sales are expected to remain flat year on year in 2027, while overseas sales will increase significantly. The company's overseas target is a double-digit year-on-year increase. Due to the mandatory installation of an automatic emergency braking system in July, some demand was ahead of schedule in the second quarter. Sales were weak in July, and management expected sales to pick up quarterly in the fourth quarter.

In terms of electric trucks, the company sold about 25,000 units in the first half of the year, up about 140% year on year, making it the first time that mainland cities ranked first; management aims to reach the bottom line break-even of electric trucks in 2026 and export 1,000 units in 2027. As of the first half of the year, Africa and Southeast Asia accounted for about 47% and 28% of overseas sales respectively, followed by the Middle East, Latin America, the CIS and Australia; management was optimistic about infrastructure and mining needs in Africa and Southeast Asia, and guided Latin America to increase by more than 70% year on year and Australia by more than 100% year on year.