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Kao (TSE:4452) Looks Better Value As Curél Nordic Launch Tests Its Europe Growth Story

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Kao (TSE:4452) is back in focus after announcing that its Curél skincare brand will launch across the Nordics in September 2026, extending the company’s push into higher value cosmetics in Europe.

Despite this Curél expansion news, Kao’s recent share price has eased, with a 7 day share price return of 5.11% and a 30 day share price return of 5.45%, following a stronger 90 day share price return of 16.51% and a 3 year total shareholder return of 33.70%, which suggests that longer term holders have seen steadier momentum than those focused on the past month.

Compare Kao’s push into higher value skincare with other consumer stocks that also combine brand strength and solid fundamentals by scanning the 74 high quality undiscovered gems.

Kao now trades at a modest discount to both analyst targets and an assessed fair value, even after the recent run. Is the market sensibly cautious about the earnings profile, or has it marked the stock down too far ahead of the next stage in the Curél plan?

Most Popular Narrative: 8.4% Undervalued

The most followed narrative currently places Kao’s fair value at ¥3,772, which sits above the last close of ¥3,455 and frames the Curél rollout within a broader earnings and margin story.

Kao's consistent investment in developing high value-added and premium products, particularly in fabric care and hair care, responds to increasing consumer demand in Asia's growing urban middle class, supporting sustained revenue growth and improved net margin through pricing power.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is baked into that valuation gap for Kao? The narrative leans on steady top line expansion, firmer margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious how those ingredients combine into a single fair value number.

Result: Fair Value of ¥3,772 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the Kao story also hinges on overseas growth improving and input cost pressure staying manageable. Setbacks on either front could quickly challenge that undervaluation case.

Find out about the key risks to this Kao narrative.

Next Steps

If this Kao story has you weighing both the excitement and the caveats, move quickly to test the numbers and sentiment for yourself by reviewing the 4 key rewards.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.