CITIC Construction Investment: Supply side will be frequent in 2026, and current consumption still needs to focus on segmented alpha opportunities

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the 2026 demand-side beta has yet to arrive, but many industries have already completed supply-side improvements. The bank believes that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, consumption still needs to focus on segmented alpha opportunities. On the one hand, the logic of Chinese brands going overseas and the return of consumption is getting smoother, and on the other hand, supply-side driving. The medical and aesthetic industry is gradually reflecting the restoration of double increases in volume and price, increased channel concentration due to the reshuffle of consumer electronics channels, agglomeration of scale effects on the production side under the trend of small cosmetics orders, gradual acquisition of pricing rights by overseas brands, and the integration of business formats after the real estate market supply is cleared. It is expected that more industries will achieve supply-side optimization in the future.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

consumption

Since 2025, the overall consumer sector has lagged behind. The market's expectations for a decline in consumption have not been fully fed back, but valuation and performance are close to a rational range, and institutional allocation is also low. From a policy perspective, the consumption level and structure of Chinese residents has reached a stage where the service industry is gaining strength. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the market needs to pay attention to the development opportunities of service consumption; from an industry perspective, most industries have completed the clearance of good traditional supply, and there is still plenty of room for new supply in the fields of interest consumption and artificial intelligence.

Duty free section

The implementation of customs clearance in Hainan has opened up a new stage of duty-free outlying islands. The value of outlying islands duty-free channels continues to grow steadily, the value of airports, ports and other channels continues to be deeply cultivated. The gradual standardization of national tax supervision policies, the strong pattern of RMB, and mergers and acquisitions of high-quality assets are expected to promote development. The continuous implementation and optimization of leading duty-free core properties has brought about an increase in consumer experience and product supply. Recommended attention: China is exempt from China.

Travel, gaming

Travel demand has maintained resilient and steady growth. Natural resource performance is good. Tourist destinations are in full bloom and holiday consumption is concentrated. Only supply-side optimization experiences can drive consumption transformation and increase. Long-term domestic destinations may benefit from disrupted outbound demand, and inbound tourism continues to grow. Focus on the operation and integration logic of high-quality assets in the travel chain; the growth of middle and high-end demand in the gaming sector needs to be continuously verified, and GGR's recovery improved markedly after the World Cup. Recommended attention: Jiuhua Travel, Lingnan Holdings, Galaxy Entertainment.

Hotels

The supply-side growth rate is expected to gradually return to rationality within the year. The 26Q2 RevPAR restoration trend will slow down, leisure demand will recover again during the summer, and supply chain operations and platform empowerment capabilities will gradually become prominent. Industry differentiation shows that profits are growing faster than revenue. The current domestic chain rate space, supply inflection point, brand matrix improvement, overseas exploration, member refinement, and shareholder feedback are gradually approaching the development path of leading global hotels, or welcoming long-term dividends. Recommended attention: Huazhu Group-S, Yaduo, Jinjiang Hotel, First Travel Hotel.

dining

The supply-side optimization logic of the industry has been gradually verified and entered the deep-water zone. The performance of 26H1 leaders is divided and most are under pressure, and competition for cost performance is still fierce. The restaurant industry pursues a balance between gross margin and customer experience in the short term. In the medium to long term, it focuses on cyclical attributes, strong organization and execution, high-quality supply chain collaboration, quality-price ratio, reasonable pace of development, cash flow, and industrial chain bargaining power. The marginal decline in raw material prices may bring more flexible competition space. Recommended attention: Gu Ming, Yum Sheng China, Haidilao, and Michelle Group.

cosmetics

Online competition is still there, but the winners and losers have moved from simply chasing scale to cost discipline and multi-brand structures. 26Q2 on the manufacturing side still maintained double-digit growth, and its elasticity was higher than that of the brand side, but the growth rate has declined from the high point of Q1, mainly due to Q2 cost pressure; revenue on the brand side continued to slow, and the net sales gap trend diverged. Focus on targets that match quantitative profit and improve gross sales margins. Recommended attention: Lin Qingxuan, Mao Geping, Runben Co., Ltd., Bethany, Perea, and manufacturer Norsbell, which have potential on the brand side.

Aesthetic medicine

As competition intensified, the life cycle of a single product was shortened and the price market declined, which was still reflected in brand reports, while the institutional side became the highlight of the quarter's growth. New materials such as Jinbo Biotech have passed the rapid harvest period, and adjustments have been transferred from a high base; the decline in Imeke's revenue has narrowed, and new products and pipelines are still awaiting verification. The growth of individual stocks is directly related to track location and store/product cycle. Recommended attention: institutions such as Duan Langzi Co., Ltd., Beautiful Tianyuan Healthcare, New Oxygen, and Aimeike and Sihuan Pharmaceuticals, which have a rich and continuous brand-side matrix.

General retail

The recovery on the demand side is still weak. The supply side focuses on emerging business formats, such as discount retail. It is recommended to focus on: the sound is busy; El Niño may bring about drastic changes in the global crop industry. Stable demand can lead to a revaluation of continuous cash flow. It is recommended to focus on agricultural products.

Foreign trade and cross-border

Diesel and shipbuilding continue to prosper, and the trend of expanding the advantages of the Chinese shipbuilding industry will not be influenced by US foreign policy. The main participants in the industry have accumulated orders in hand for many years. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to Sumeda, which has grown over a long period of time with high dividends and undervalued prices. The successive receipt of tariff rebates has also reflected the operational resilience of overseas companies. The impact on exchange rates is expected to decrease significantly in the second half of the year. From category going overseas to brands going overseas, a number of overseas companies are driving a number of overseas companies to all parts of the world. It is recommended to focus on Greenlink Technology, Anke Innovation, and Huakai Yibai.

Professional chains and professional markets

Consumer electronics terminals are affected by this round of AI-driven cost inflation, and the supply and demand pattern has drastically changed. The Apple series, which has a strong profit base, has shown good resilience, and the corresponding channel business has bucked the trend. It is recommended to pay attention to Ascend. Demand in the real estate aftermarket is relatively stable. It is gradually shifting from a new home narrative to a second-hand housing narrative. The supply side of the industry is quite thorough. It is recommended to pay attention to Macalline.