Wall Street Investment Firm Bernstein Thinks Bitcoin Could Hit $300,000 by 2029. Is Bitcoin Now a Buy?
Key Points
Bernstein thinks Bitcoin could hit $150,000 in 2027 and $300,000 by the end of 2029.
A key catalyst will be the "debasement trade," as investors begin to buy Bitcoin and sell dollars.
Bitcoin has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33% over the past decade.
After posting a 25% return in August, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is suddenly back on the radars of many investors. Not surprisingly, Wall Street investment firms are now bumping up their price targets for Bitcoin.
Case in point: Investment firm Bernstein now thinks Bitcoin could hit a price of $150,000 by mid-2027 and a price of $300,000 by the end of 2029. In an ultrabullish scenario, Bitcoin might soar as high as $500,000. So is now the time to buy?
Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »
Catalysts for Bitcoin
Several catalysts might propel Bitcoin higher. One of these is the so-called debasement trade. In an era of staggering government debt and rising fiscal deficits, Bitcoin suddenly looks much more attractive as a hedge against a weakening dollar.
Image source: Getty Images.
After all, Bitcoin is a noninflationary asset that, for extended periods, has behaved much like gold. So if investors are moving into gold and other precious metals as a result of the debasement trade, shouldn't they also be moving into Bitcoin?
Another major catalyst is the improving regulatory outlook for crypto. The centerpiece here is the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which could pass later this year. If it does, the Clarity Act will make it much easier for both retail and institutional investors to buy, hold, and trade Bitcoin.
At the same time, the pace of institutional adoption of Bitcoin is rising. Wall Street firms continue to launch new Bitcoin investment products; digital asset treasury companies continue to hoard Bitcoin; corporations are starting to add Bitcoin to their balance sheets as a treasury asset; and investment advisors are beginning to advise clients on Bitcoin. All of this should help to push Bitcoin much higher in the coming years.
How realistic is a price target of $300,000?
Bitcoin is highly cyclical and typically trades in four-year boom-and-bust cycles. According to Bernstein, Bitcoin is already in recovery mode after a decline of nearly 10 months (i.e., the "bust" part of the cycle). That means the next bull market cycle might already be right around the corner.
While a price target of $300,000 might sound high, it's really just par for the course when it comes to Bitcoin. In the period from August 2017 to July 2026, Bitcoin grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 33%.
If you assume that Bitcoin will get back to the $100,000 price level by the start of 2027, Bitcoin just needs to grow at a CAGR of 32% to hit a price of $300,000 by the end of 2030, and a CAGR of 44% to hit that price by the end of 2029.
Of course, past performance is no guarantee of future performance. So there's no guarantee that Bitcoin can continue to grow at such a rapid clip. But Bitcoin has been surprisingly resilient in the past, continually bouncing back from market downturns.
Even if Bitcoin doesn't hit $300,000 by 2030, it could still outpace most tech stocks. For that reason, a current price of $80,000 looks like an attractive entry point for Bitcoin investors.
Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.