Is Tamboran Resources (ASX:TBN) Cheap As First Beetaloo Gas Sales Begin?
Tamboran Resources (ASX:TBN) has reached a key operational milestone by recording the first natural gas sales from the Shenandoah South Pilot Project in the Beetaloo Basin, supplying the Northern Territory’s power needs.
The commissioning of the Sturt Plateau Compression Facility and the first Beetaloo gas sales appear to be feeding into stronger sentiment around Tamboran Resources. The latest A$0.30 share price is accompanied by a 30-day share price return of 30.43% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 79.84%.
Scan beyond Tamboran Resources and compare this milestone to other energy stocks in our hand picked 39 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks that are shaping how power reaches homes and industry.
Tamboran Resources has just delivered a big operational step and a strong recent share price move. The market now has a fresh spread between today’s A$0.30 price and analyst estimates. Where does fair value really sit?
Most Popular Narrative: 20.1% Undervalued
Tamboran Resources is trading at A$0.30, while the most followed narrative places fair value at about A$0.38 using a 7.0% discount rate. That gap rests on a very specific view of how the Beetaloo Basin and early gas sales reshape the financial profile.
Progress towards first gas from the Beetaloo Basin Pilot Area in the third quarter of calendar 2026, supported by an 88% complete compression facility and an APA owned pipeline in final commissioning, is expected to move Tamboran Resources from a pre revenue phase toward contracted gas sales. This is likely to affect revenue visibility and cash flow generation.
Want to see what is behind that valuation gap? The narrative leans on rapid revenue build, margin expansion and a high future earnings multiple that few gas producers usually attract.
Result: Fair Value of A$0.38 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this Tamboran Resources narrative still hinges on timely Beetaloo development and continued access to funding, so delays or tougher capital markets could quickly challenge it.
Find out about the key risks to this Tamboran Resources narrative.
Another View on Tamboran Resources Using P/B
The popular Tamboran Resources narrative points to a fair value of about A$0.38, yet the current market multiples tell a different story. The stock trades on a P/B of 4.6x compared with 1.4x for the Australian Oil and Gas industry and 0.9x for peers. This points to a richer valuation and raises the question of how much execution risk is already priced in.
Our P/B comparison suggests investors are paying a clear premium for Tamboran Resources relative to both the industry and similar stocks, which increases the risk if the Beetaloo Basin plan does not progress as expected. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
Given the mix of optimism and caution around Tamboran Resources, it makes sense to review the underlying data in detail and decide quickly where you stand based on 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Tamboran Resources?
If Tamboran Resources has your attention, do not stop here. Broader context from other stocks can sharpen your thinking and help you spot better risk reward trade offs.
Use the Simply Wall St Screener to uncover fresh ideas that match different goals and risk levels before the market prices them more fully.
- Target potential value opportunities by reviewing companies that appear underpriced on quality and fundamentals through the 11 high quality undervalued stocks.
- Strengthen your defensive side by checking companies with robust finances in the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (21 results).
- Hunt for lesser known opportunities by scanning the 13 high quality undiscovered gems before they attract wider attention.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com