Nidec (TSE:6594) Could Be 8% Above Fair Value After Press Conference
The scheduled NIDEC Press Conference on 4 September 2026 has drawn fresh attention to Nidec (TSE:6594), with investors weighing what any updates could mean for the stock after recent share price moves.
The scheduled press conference comes after a sharp 7.09% 1 day share price return and an 8.33% 7 day share price return, which adds to Nidec’s 33.65% year to date share price return but contrasts with a 5 year total shareholder return that is down 56.04%.
Compare Nidec's sharp moves with other companies exposed to robotics and automation by scanning our hand picked list of 36 robotics and automation stocks.
After a jump like this, Nidec’s recent share price strength and long term total return record appear to be pulling in opposite directions. Does the current valuation still leave enough upside to compensate you for the risks from here?
Most Popular Narrative: 7.7% Overvalued
The most followed narrative values Nidec at ¥2,596.25 per share, which sits below the latest close at ¥2,796. That gap is built on detailed assumptions about how Nidec’s motors and electronics businesses might scale over time, rather than on the recent share price spike.
Ongoing structural reforms targeting a ¥100 billion reduction in variable costs and ¥50 billion in fixed costs through business consolidation, site rationalization, and exit from low margin segments are expected to materially improve operating margins and net profitability, especially into FY2027, supporting a rerating of the business.
Want to see what sits behind that potential rerating for Nidec? The narrative leans on gradual revenue growth, a step up in profit margins, and a future earnings multiple that assumes investors stay prepared to pay up for those targets.
Result: Fair Value of ¥2,596.25 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are still clear risks for Nidec, including ongoing investigations into inappropriate accounting treatment and the high execution risk around its large scale restructuring plans.
Find out about the key risks to this Nidec narrative.
Another View On Nidec’s Valuation
The analyst narrative suggests Nidec is about 7.7% overvalued at ¥2,796 compared with a fair value of ¥2,596. At the same time, the SWS DCF model estimates future cash flows are worth ¥3,595.98 per share, which points to Nidec trading at a discount instead.
This split between earnings based targets and cash flow based value puts the onus back on you. Which set of assumptions feels closer to how Nidec will actually perform over the next few years, and what does that mean for the risk you are prepared to take from here?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Nidec for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 23 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
If this mix of optimism and caution around Nidec leaves you undecided, consider taking a closer look now and stress testing the upside you think is realistic based on the 3 key rewards.
Looking for more investment ideas beyond Nidec?
If Nidec has sharpened your focus, do not stop there. Broaden your watchlist now so you do not miss other opportunities that could better fit your goals.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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