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Is AutoZone (AZO) Fairly Valued After Split Analyst Calls Ahead Of Earnings?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Conflicting analyst signals keep AutoZone in the spotlight

AutoZone (AZO) is drawing fresh attention after a split in analyst views, with broadly positive brokerage ratings sitting against a Zacks Rank #4 Sell ahead of the company’s September 22 earnings release.

At a share price of US$2,983.29, AutoZone has seen short term momentum soften, with a 30 day share price return down 4.6% and a year to date share price return down 9.7%, while the 1 year total shareholder return has declined 29.3%, even though the 5 year total shareholder return is up 92.4%.

Compare this mixed AutoZone sentiment with other retailers by scanning the hand picked 47 high quality undervalued stocks that currently combine solid cash flows with stronger recent momentum.

AutoZone now trades at a clear discount to the average analyst target and only a slight discount to one intrinsic estimate. The recent share price slide raises a simple issue: Which reference point comes closest to fair value?

Most Popular Narrative: 24.8% Undervalued

On the most followed narrative, AutoZone’s fair value sits at $3,969.38 compared with the last close of $2,983.29. This frames a sizeable valuation gap for investors to assess.

AutoZone's focus on improving availability and speed of delivery in the Domestic Commercial business is expected to drive further sales growth, contributing significantly to revenue growth.

The expansion of Mega-Hub locations, with an aim to open at least 19 more in the next two quarters, will enhance inventory availability and support both retail and Commercial growth, potentially improving sales and operating margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to understand why this AutoZone view points to meaningful upside from today’s price? The narrative leans heavily on faster top line expansion and a richer profit margin profile built on execution, not hype. Curious which specific earnings and revenue paths are baked into that fair value and how much credit the narrative gives to buybacks versus core operations?

Result: Fair Value of $3,969.38 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, AutoZone’s story can change quickly if tariffs on China sourced products squeeze margins further or if regional sales volatility persists and weakens the growth profile that analysts expect.

Find out about the key risks to this AutoZone narrative.

Another view on AutoZone using market multiples

The analyst narrative frames AutoZone as 24.8% undervalued, yet the market is sending a more cautious signal. At a P/E of 19.7x, the stock trades above the US Specialty Retail industry on 18.6x, although below a 29.3x peer average and almost exactly in line with an estimated fair ratio of 19.8x. That mix of signals suggests valuation risk and opportunity are finely balanced rather than one way. Which reference point do you trust when price and narrative do not fully match?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

NYSE:AZO P/E Ratio as at Sep 2026
NYSE:AZO P/E Ratio as at Sep 2026

Next Steps

With sentiment on AutoZone split between opportunity and caution, it makes sense to move quickly and test the numbers against your own expectations. To weigh the potential risks alongside the possible rewards, start by reviewing the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond AutoZone?

If AutoZone has you thinking more carefully about price, quality, and risk, now is the moment to widen your search before the next move passes you by.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.