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TMC The Metals (TMC) Could Be 56% Undervalued After Permit Progress And Lower Losses

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

TMC the metals (TMC) drew fresh investor attention after reporting second quarter 2026 results that showed a reduced loss and progress on key regulatory permits tied to its planned offshore vessel commissioning timeline.

TMC the metals’ recent regulatory progress comes after a choppy year for the stock, with the share price at $4.40, a 1 month share price return of 11.39%, a year to date share price decline of 35.10%, and a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 14.06%.

Compare TMC the metals’ regulatory driven story with other resources stocks that analysts rate highly by scanning our hand picked list of 52 high quality undervalued stocks.

TMC the metals now has a clearer regulatory path and a sharp recent rebound in the share price. The bigger issue for you is simple: Does the current valuation fairly reflect that progress or overshoot it?

Most Popular Narrative: 56% Undervalued

Relative to TMC the metals’ last close of $4.40, the most widely followed narrative pegs fair value at $10.00. This implies a sizable valuation gap based on analysts’ long range project assumptions and risk adjustments using an 8.3% discount rate.

Although the company now has a consolidated NOAA application deemed substantially compliant and refers to SEC compliant mineral reserves, the commercial recovery permit is still pending. Any delay or stricter conditions could push back revenue timing and extend the period of net losses.

Read the complete narrative.

The narrative continues to see upside for TMC the metals despite zero current revenue and ongoing losses. The story hinges on aggressive revenue inflection, very high long term margins, and a richer future earnings multiple than many peers. The key question is which specific combination of growth, profitability, and valuation expectations would need to align for that $10.00 fair value to be supported.

Result: Fair Value of $10.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh the chance of delays or tighter conditions on TMC, the metals’ commercial recovery permit and potential cost overruns in the offshore system.

Find out about the key risks to this TMC the metals narrative.

Next Steps

If the mix of risks and rewards around TMC the metals feels finely balanced, consider reviewing the data yourself so you can form a clear view. To see both sides set out in one place, start with the 3 key rewards and 5 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas beyond TMC the metals?

If you stop with TMC the metals, you risk missing other opportunities that fit your goals. Take a few minutes to widen your watchlist using targeted screeners built from real fundamentals.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.