US stock outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes have mixed ups and downs, and the US will hit the non-agricultural sector tonight in August

Pre-market market trends

1. Before the US stock market on September 4 (Friday), futures for the three major US stock indexes had mixed ups and downs. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.09%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.04%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.45%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index rose 0.27%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.05%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.15%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.07%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.62% to $90.73 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.37% to $95.17 per barrel.

Market news

US Non-Farmers Revealed Tonight: From “Savior” to “Backdrop”? The fate of the Federal Reserve's rate hike has turned to CPI. US non-farm payrolls data for August will be released on Friday evening Beijing time. If non-farm payrolls are added close to market expectations of 53,000 to 56,000 and the unemployment rate remains 4.1%, even if recruitment is weak, it will only continue the stable pattern of “low recruitment and low layoffs”, leaving the Fed still room to focus on inflation; if employment grows negatively again and the unemployment rate rises to 4.2% or higher, the market may significantly cut interest rate hikes. Conversely, a strong non-agricultural sector can prove that the economy can withstand interest rate hikes, but it cannot force the Federal Reserve to act alone, because the trend of inflation is the anchor of the Fed's more focused policy. Therefore, the importance of this employment data is to test whether the labor market is weak enough to form a “veto power” on interest rate hikes.

“Doctor Doom” is rarely optimistic! Roubini: The AI boom is driving higher yields and is a “sign of stronger growth” rather than a precursor to a bond crisis. While the global bond market experienced the fiercest simultaneous sell-off in nearly 20 years, and the yield on long-term bonds in the US, Japan, Europe, and the UK hit new highs in more than 10 years, economist Nuril Roubini, famous for his pessimistic predictions, unexpectedly threw out an optimistic judgment. The “Doomsday Doctor,” who accurately predicted the 2008 global financial crisis, said that the recent surge in yield is not a sign of a financial crisis, but rather a reflection of the optimism and capital expenditure growth brought about by the AI boom. He believes that the biggest driver of the increase in real returns is capital expenditure, AI, and future prosperity in the technology sector. He pointed out that part of the increase in bond yields may actually be sending a signal of stronger growth — “usually when risk appetite rises, economic growth will be stronger, stock prices will rise, and bond yields will also rise.”

AI venture capital is going from carnival to picky! There is a wave of water rush, and a major reshuffle in the industry is likely to occur as soon as it is triggered. Venture capital experts said that as valuations in some areas begin to show signs of being too high, investors should shift their focus to AI companies' productivity growth. For example, Nitra, founding partner of venture capital firm Purple Ventures, said, “As investors' requirements on where technology creates real value and where to simply package a function into a business become much more stringent, we may see a major reshuffle in the industry.” He expects capital to become much more picky over the next 6 to 12 months. Nitra notes that while AI can transform the economy, not every company that writes AI in its business plan “deserves an unusually high valuation.” He added, “The real winners will be companies that use AI to solve expensive and extremely complex problems.”

The flames of war between the US and Iran have reignited! The Middle East and the two straits were hit by supply shocks, and crude oil reached its strongest weekly gain since July. As hostilities between the US and Iran escalate again, heightening market concerns about the long-term blockage of energy in the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Mander, the international oil price benchmark — the Brent crude oil futures price — is expected to record the biggest weekly increase since July. The two major maritime throats are creating a combined risk. Energy exports from the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz remain limited, and the Mander Strait also threatens an alternative route for Saudi ports to bypass the Red Sea-Suez Canal. Simultaneous blocking of both will significantly reduce the orbiting flexibility of the global energy supply chain, leading to a rise in maritime shipping costs along with the prices of crude oil, refined oil products, and natural gas.

Individual stock news

No steering wheel and no brake pedals! Tesla (TSLA.US) Cybercab began charging for passengers. Tesla began using Cybercab without a steering wheel or brake pedal to provide paid passenger transportation services in Austin, Texas, USA. Unlike Robotaxis, which previously retained traditional controls, this batch of unmanned taxis no longer allowed passengers to directly take over the vehicle. Tesla, Waymo, and Zoox, a subsidiary of Amazon, have taken different technical routes. Tesla mainly relies on cameras and vision systems, while Waymo and Zoox also use radar and lidar. After Cybercab removed the steering wheel and brake pedals, Tesla must further prove that its vision solution can operate stably on complicated roads and low visibility environments. Consumer acceptance is also a threshold. With the launch of the Cybercab launch event, what investors are really concerned about is whether Cybercab can quickly move from small-scale operation to large-scale deployment. If Tesla wants to promote Cybercab on a large scale, it may also need to obtain similar exemptions from federal automobile safety regulations; it has not yet obtained relevant approval.

Another cybersecurity winner added to the AI reasoning era! Zscaler (ZS.US) is racing for the trillion-dollar circuit with a 75% increase in sales pipeline. According to financial reports, Zscaler's revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter was US$898.2 million, up 25% year over year, higher than market expectations of US$877 million; adjusted earnings per share were US$1.19, higher than the forecast of US$1.09; and annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased 25% to US$3.771 billion. More importantly, “AI security” bookings increased by more than 50% month-on-month, and sales pipeline increased by 75% — the former reflects already closed commercial orders; the latter reflects strong future order reserves. As models call data, applications, and tools more frequently, the demand for zero-trust access, identity governance, and data leakage prevention becomes stronger. Management expects revenue of US$935 million to US$939 million for the first quarter of FY2027, higher than market expectations of US$927 million; adjusted earnings per share of US$1.15-1.16, higher than the forecast of US$1.08; and guidance for the full year of FY2027 was also better than market expectations. However, as of press time, Zscaler's US stocks fell nearly 3% before the market on Friday.

UiPath (PATH.US) Q2 revenue exceeded expectations and raised full-year guidance. Investors are keeping an eye on ARR growth and AI monetization path. According to financial reports, UiPath's revenue for the second fiscal quarter increased 13% year over year to US$410.2.6 million, higher than market expectations of US$397.7 million. The company said that revenue growth was mainly boosted by stable demand and weakening foreign exchange resistance. GAAP operating profit of USD 32 million and achieved GAAP profit for the fourth consecutive quarter; adjusted earnings per share were $0.15, in line with market expectations. Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) was $1.938 billion, up 12% year over year. The net increase in ARR increased from $31 million in the previous quarter to $37 million, showing an improvement over the previous quarter. Although the absolute size of the net increase in ARR is still not high, management emphasized that the trend of this indicator is “moving upward in a steady manner.” UiPath raised its annual guidance. The estimated revenue is between 1,789 billion and 1,794 million US dollars, higher than the previous guidance range of about 1,776 billion US dollars to 1,781 billion US dollars, and higher than the market forecast of about 1.78 billion US dollars. As of press release, UiPath's US stocks fell more than 8% before the market on Friday.

AI drives business growth at an accelerated pace! DocuSign (DOCU.US)'s second-quarter revenue increased 9.4% year over year, raising full-year results guidance. According to financial reports, electronic signature solution provider DocuSign's second-quarter revenue increased 9.4% year-on-year to US$875.7 million, exceeding expectations of US$8.54 million; adjusted earnings per share were US$1.16, higher than market expectations of US$1.09. The adjusted gross margin was 81.7%, slightly higher than market expectations of 81.6%; the adjusted operating margin was 31.6%, which also exceeded market expectations of 30%. For the full fiscal year, the company raised its revenue guidance to $3.5 billion to $3.51 billion, compared to the previous forecast of $3.49 billion to $3.5 billion. At the same time, it raised the adjusted operating margin guidance to 31% to 31.5%, compared to the previous guidance of 30.5% to 31%.

Results fell short of expectations+full-year guidance was lowered again, and Lululemon (LULU.US) fell sharply before the market. According to financial reports, Lululemon's second-quarter revenue fell 4% year on year to US$2.4 billion, lower than market expectations of US$2.46 billion; same-store sales fell 9% after excluding exchange rate factors and fell 10% at a fixed exchange rate. This is the first time since the pandemic recorded a decline of 4.28%. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.92 (including $0.86 for tariff refunds and related interest contributions), far exceeding market expectations of $1.82, but lower than $3.10 in the same period last year. At the same time, the company once again lowered its full-year results guidance. It expects revenue for the 2026 fiscal year to be 10.35 billion US dollars to 10.5 billion US dollars, which is lower than the forecast range given in June, and significantly lower than the market forecast of 11.03 billion US dollars; the adjusted earnings per share for the full year are expected to be 9.48 to 9.73 US dollars, which is also lower than the market forecast of 10.84 US dollars. The company had previously lowered its full-year guidance in June, which meant that the full-year results outlook was lowered for the second consecutive quarter. As of press release, Lululemon's US stocks plummeted by more than 19% before the market on Friday.

Key economic data and event forecasts

20:30 Beijing time after seasonal adjustment of changes in the US non-farm payrolls population in August (10,000)