CITIC Construction Investment: The express delivery industry is shifting from a “price war” to a comprehensive “share+service” game

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Construction Investment released a research report saying that the 2026Q2 express delivery industry showed three major characteristics: First, the industry's growth center is declining, but it is still resilient during the peak season. Second, in terms of the competitive landscape, Shentong used the Ali ecosystem to counterattack. Yuantong is steadily getting closer to Zhongtong, and the leading faction is facing a rearrangement of seats. Third, revenue growth generally outperforms business volume, vicious price competition in the industry has abated, and enterprises pay more attention to the quality of operations. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the industry will enter a transition period of traditional weak season, compounded by the continuous attention of the supervisory authorities on low price competition. Leading companies are expected to find better solutions in the balance between volume and price, and cost control capabilities and differentiated services will become the key to differentiation.

CITIC Construction Investment's main views are as follows:

Industry Overview

Judging from the performance of the various transportation sub-sectors compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, the overall transportation sector rose this week (August 24 to August 28). Among them, the comprehensive logistics sector rose 3.20% and the express delivery sector rose 1.63%.

Business volume

Shentong and Jitu took the lead, and the differentiation intensified. Judging from the year-on-year growth rate of business volume, Shentong (including Danniao) led the way with a growth rate of +17.06%, reaching +11.77% after excluding Danniao, continuing the high growth trend; Jitu China continued to grow at a high rate of +10.62% compared to the same period last year, and its share increased steadily due to the continuous expansion of the franchise network.

The competitive landscape

Concentration increased again, and Shentong's share jumped the fastest. The total market share of the six listed express delivery companies was 82.88%, an increase of 1.62 pct over the previous year, and industry concentration continued to rise. The market share of Shentong (including Danniao) was 14.54%, +1.59pct year on year, and ecological synergy effects with Ali continued to be released; Yuantong 16.40%, +0.40pct year on year, the gap between share and Zhongtong (19.92%, +0.42pct year on year) narrowed; SF Express 7.79%, Yunda 12.43%.

Revenue side

Shentong and Zhongtong performed well. The revenue growth rate is generally higher than the growth rate of business volume, which indicates an improvement in the price side or product structure. Shentong's revenue was +28.98%, far exceeding the growth rate of business volume, reflecting a recovery in single ticket revenue or an increase in the share of high-value-added businesses; Zhongtong's revenue was +23.00% compared to the same period, showing good performance on both sides of volume and price.

2026Q2 express delivery industry presents three major characteristics

First, the industry's growth center has moved downward, but the peak season is still resilient; second, the competitive pattern is shifting from a “price war” to a “share+service” comprehensive game. Shentong used the Ali ecosystem to achieve a counterattack. Yuantong steadily approached Zhongtong, and the leading faction faced a rearrangement of seats; third, revenue growth generally outperformed business volume, and vicious price competition in the industry has abated, and enterprises pay more attention to business quality. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the industry will enter a transition period of traditional weak season, compounded by the continuous attention of the supervisory authorities on low price competition. Leading companies are expected to find better solutions in the balance between volume and price, and cost control capabilities and differentiated services will become the key to differentiation.

risk analysis

The growth in e-commerce express delivery demand fell short of expectations; the price war in the express delivery industry intensified; and the increase in labor costs exceeded expectations.