Lyon: The global pharmaceutical supply chain has entered a decade of restructuring and is the preferred drug, leading platforms such as Kangde (02359)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Lyon released a global healthcare industry outlook research report stating that the global pharmaceutical supply chain is undergoing a ten-year restructuring. Brand-name drug sales of more than 500 billion US dollars are facing a patent cliff, expanding demand for pharmaceuticals, and accelerated localization of manufacturing, which is driving a new round of R&D investment, capacity expansion and outsourcing needs. The bank believes that value creation will increasingly focus on platform-based leaders with scale, technology and global localization layout. Thermo Fisher (TMO.US), Swiss Lonza, and China Pharmaceutical (02359) reflect the structural advantages of the US, Europe and China, respectively, and are the preferred beneficiaries of this round of industry restructuring.

Lyon pointed out that from 2026 to 2032, sales of over 500 billion US dollars of branded drugs faced patent expiration, and the share of sales affected by patent expiration is expected to rise from 6.5% in 2028 to more than 8% in 2032. Large pharmaceutical companies will be forced to drive R&D activities, technology transfer, and commercialization volume by increasing R&D expenses, licensing activities, and targeted mergers and acquisitions to benefit life science tools, contract research institutes (CROs), and contract development and production organizations (CDMOS).

At the same time, global biopharmaceutical growth is no longer dominated by oncology alone. The importance of obesity, diabetes, immunology, and other chronic diseases is rising, and drug forms are also being extended from small molecules to more complex therapies such as antibody drug conjugates (ADCs), bispecific/multispecific antibodies, and peptides. The government and large pharmaceutical companies are also increasingly considering manufacturing safety and geographical dispersion as strategic priorities. It is expected that they will selectively push high-value pharmaceutical manufacturing back to the US while maintaining global supply networks.

In terms of individual stocks, Lyon covered Thermo Fisher for the first time and gave it a “outperforming market” rating. The target price is 748 US dollars. It is optimistic that it is a leading life science tool platform, and has broad exposure to the recovery of biopharmaceutical investment and the return of US manufacturing. The bank maintained Switzerland's Lonza's “outperforming the market” rating, and the target price was raised from 667 Swiss francs to 759 Swiss francs, believing that its scarce biopharmaceutical production capacity would help capture growth in localization and outsourcing.

For its part, Lyon maintained its “outperforming the market” rating, raising the target price for H shares from HK$214.1 to HK$262, and raising the target price for A-shares of 603259.SH from RMB 187.8 to RMB 230. The bank believes that despite the attention paid to geopolitical factors, the company's leading technology position can still benefit from rising demand for advanced pharmaceutical outsourcing. Samsung Biopharmaceuticals (207940.KS) also maintained its “outperforming market” rating, with a target price of 1.8 million won. It is expected to benefit from themes such as peptide demand driven by the patent cliff, dual procurement of biopharmaceuticals, and the return of US manufacturing.