Guosheng Securities: AI package upgrade drives TGV industry chain to welcome a golden period of development

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that CowOS has become an important packaging solution for high-end AI chips, but there are still problems such as insufficient production capacity, high cost, and warpage heating. Emerging applications such as CPO are also expected to expand potential application space. TGV drilling and in-hole metallization are two core technical difficulties in glass substrate manufacturing. It is recommended to focus on three main lines: 1) TGV precision processing, focusing on glass through-hole processing and related glass substrate manufacturing processes; 2) core equipment sellers, focusing on key process equipment such as TGV laser drilling, PVD seed layer deposition, copper electroplating, and CMP; 3) upstream original film links, focusing on manufacturers with the ability to develop and manufacture original glass sheets and are expected to expand into the semiconductor glass substrate field.

Guosheng Securities's main views are as follows:

In the post-Moorish era, transistors had already reached their physical limits, and CoWoS packaging faced problems such as insufficient production capacity, high cost, heat generation and warpage

As the performance of AI chips continues to improve, Nvidia's core GPU evolved from 4nm on the H100 to 3nm on the VR200. The number of transistors, video memory bandwidth, and power consumption continue to increase. Relying on process miniaturization alone is difficult to support performance growth. Advanced packaging and Chiplet have become important directions for breaking through bottlenecks. Currently, advanced packaging routes such as 2.5D and 3D are being developed in parallel. Among them, CowOS has become an important packaging solution for high-end AI chips, but there are still problems such as insufficient production capacity, limited mask size, high cost and yield pressure of large silicon interlayers, and warpage due to mismatch in the thermal expansion coefficient of ABF carrier boards.

Glass substrates lead in multiple properties and are an important development direction for the advanced packaging industry

Compared with organic substrates, silicon-based intermediates, and ceramic substrates, glass substrates have a low and adjustable thermal expansion coefficient, excellent dielectric performance, high flatness, and large manufacturing capacity. They can support about 2/2 μm fine lines and about 25 μm Core Via, which is expected to improve warpage, signal loss, and area utilization problems in large packages. Currently, glass substrates have formed various applications such as CoPos, Intel Glass-Core, CPO, and glass bridges. According to PMarketResearch, the global glass substrate market will grow from US$7.12 billion in 2020 to US$9.03 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach US$16.81 billion in 2032. At the same time, emerging applications such as CPO are also expected to expand potential application space.

TGV drilling and in-hole metallization are two core technical difficulties in glass substrate manufacturing

The glass substrate manufacturing process mainly includes glass cutting and cleaning, TGV drilling, wet etching, optical inspection, PVD seed layer deposition, copper electroplating, ABF lamination, etc. Among them, TGV formation directly affects subsequent seed layer deposition, metallization, filling and reliability. Currently, the mainstream TGV drilling solution is laser-induced modification+wet chemical etching (LIDE), which is compatible with femtosecond laser processing and wet etching equipment; metallization in the hole involves seed layer deposition and copper electroplating, and CMP is required to flatten the surface later. On the equipment side, domestic manufacturers such as Dir Laser, Huicheng Vacuum, Shengmei Shanghai, and Huahai Qingke have formed a layout in related equipment fields.

Investment advice

It is recommended to focus on three main lines: 1) TGV precision processing, focusing on glass through-hole processing and related glass substrate manufacturing processes; 2) core equipment sellers, focusing on key process equipment such as TGV laser drilling, PVD seed layer deposition, copper electroplating, and CMP; 3) upstream original film links, focusing on manufacturers with the ability to develop and manufacture original glass sheets and are expected to expand into the semiconductor glass substrate field. Relevant proposals focus on: BOE, TCL Technology, Shenzhen Tianma, Vogue Optoelectronics; Dyl Laser, Dazu Laser, Huagong Technology, Inno Laser, Delong Laser, Haimei, Huahai Qingke, Huicheng Vacuum, Shengmei Shanghai, Dongwei Technology, North China Chuang; Tiancheng Technology, Rainbow Co., Ltd., Kaisheng Technology, etc.

Risk warning: risk of R&D falling short of expectations, risk of technical route uncertainty, risk of third-party data and information accuracy, risk of macroeconomic environment, risk of trade restrictions, risk of industry competition pattern.