Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Copper production may decline in 2026, the market is optimistic about the performance improvement of copper stocks (with concept stocks)

Copper prices have repeatedly reached new highs in the past year, mainly driven by tariff-related trade flows.

Today, investors are betting that the near stagnation in copper production growth will push prices even higher.

A series of disappointing production figures since this year are shaking expectations of at least a slight increase in global copper supply.

According to data from the International Copper Research Organization, global copper production fell 1.1% in the first half of the year, while the Chilean National Copper Company and Freeport-McMoran both recorded double-digit declines in production. Morgan Stanley originally anticipated an increase in copper supply at the beginning of the year. Currently, production is expected to remain flat or decline slightly, which means that global copper production may experience its first annual decline since 2017.

J.P. Morgan Chase released a research report saying that the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) issued a ban on the export of copper concentrate and cobalt concentrate. It is believed that although Minmetals (01208), Zijin Mining (02899) and Luoyang Molybdenum (03993) assets in the Congo (DRC) account for about 14%, 25%, and 100% of its predicted copper production in 2026, it is believed that the actual impact of the policy is limited, because the current ban targets copper concentrate exports, and the main assets of related enterprises in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have integrated smelting production capacity. Extremely copper, not concentrate.

Komo also pointed out that since exports of copper concentrate from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have previously been subject to licensing restrictions, he believes that the short-term increase in global copper supply is limited. If copper prices remain high, the direct impact of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) copper profit tax on the profitability of mining companies will be even more significant.

Based on the spot copper price of 14,168 US dollars per ton, it is estimated that the impact of the windfall tax on the net profit of related enterprises after tax is about 1 billion yuan.

The bank maintains a positive view of copper stocks, believing that potential US tariffs are a stronger driver of stock prices.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Societe Generale Securities stated that it will continue to maintain the judgment that copper prices will move upward in the second half of 2026. Global mine supply disruptions were frequent in 2026, domestic and foreign inventories resonated and eliminated, and actual demand improvements far exceeded market expectations. US copper tariffs subsequently exacerbated structural contradictions in global inventories. The US-Iran peace talks and interest rate hike expectations brought about improvements in macro-liquidity, and copper prices rose and did not fall in the future.

Copper stocks involving relevant Hong Kong stocks include:

Minmetals Resources (01208), China Nonferrous Mining (01258), Zijin Mining (02899), Jiangxi Copper Co., Ltd. (00358), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), etc.