Is the World Cup just an “appetizer”? Robinhood (HOOD.US) was approved by the CFTC to promote a soccer contract. Piper Sandler says it is predicted that market revenue is expected to explode

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Piper Sandler released a research report on Wednesday saying that as the US soccer season officially kicks off next week, Robinhood (HOOD.US) predicts that market business revenue is expected to grow significantly.

This summer, the World Cup has brought explosive growth in trading volume to the prediction market. Analyst Patrick Moley believes this momentum provides a leading indicator of strong soccer season performance. “Considering that Kalshi and Robinhood's user base are mainly in the US market, and the popularity of soccer in the US is far higher than that of English football, we believe that the World Cup's explosive trading volume is a leading indicator of future markets—the NFL and NCAA soccer season will be an important catalyst for Robinhood to forecast market revenue for the third and fourth quarters of 2026.”

Proprietary platform Rothera has been approved by the CFTC

The prediction market platform Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna, was officially launched in June this year. The platform is a derivatives exchange and clearing house regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Piper Sandler pointed out that Robinhood management has confirmed that Rothera has received CFTC approval to provide a soccer contract covering wins and losses and markets.

Based on this, Moley raised Robinhood's 2026 and 2027 earnings per share expectations by 5% and 7%, respectively, and raised the target share price from $135 to $145, which means there is about 35% upside compared to Wednesday's closing price. At the same time, he reiterated the stock's “overweight” rating.

Traffic is moving at an accelerated pace from Kalshi

Although Robinhood is still showing users Kalshi's market, Moley estimates that around 23% of the predicted market volume has moved from Kalshi to Rothera since June.

“Robinhood's migration to Rothera has accelerated the decline in its share of Kalshi's trading volume,” Moley wrote in the research report. “During last year's soccer season, Robinhood users accounted for 22% to 30% of Kalshi's total trading volume, and this ratio has now dropped to the middle of single digits, as Kalshi is also actively acquiring its own users.”

Furthermore, driven by strong participation in the World Cup, Robinhood's average monthly forecast market volume from June to August this year increased 88% compared to January to May.

Revenue forecast for the second half of the year: approximately US$320 million

Using Kalshi as a reference, Piper Sandler predicted Robinhood's projected market revenue for the second half of the year. The agency estimates that between September and December this year, Robinhood users will trade approximately 29.7 billion event contracts, generating approximately US$320 million in revenue and approximately US$960 million in annualized revenue.

Piper Sandler found that in the 2025 season, football-related contracts accounted for 42% of Kalshi's total trading volume, and the NFL and NCAAF transactions totaled about $14 billion. However, Moley predicts that since Kalshi has expanded a variety of contract categories outside of mainstream sports, soccer contracts will not dominate the total trading volume this time around as they did last year. “In August 2026, the share of mainstream sports in Kalshi's product portfolio fell to 54%, a sharp drop from the high of 83% in November 2025.”