“Big Short” Bury once again bombarded: Palantir (PLTR.US) is a consulting company that was blown up by an AI bubble, and its valuation may fall below 100 billion US dollars

The Zhitong Finance App learned that a well-known investor, Michael Berry, the prototype of the movie “The Big Short”, once again called out Palantir (PLTR.US) and criticized the company's valuation, business model, accounting treatment, equity incentives, and CEO Alex Carp's aircraft-related expenses. He warned that Palantir's valuation could eventually fall below $100 billion.

Driven by the AI boom, Palantir's market capitalization has surpassed 400 billion US dollars, but Burry believes that there are multiple warning signs hidden behind its high growth story. “Palantir is back in Skyrim, but the truth hasn't changed,” he said in an earlier post on X platform that can't be viewed now.

The business model dispute: consulting company or software company?

Barry said Palantir is more like a consulting company than a pure software company. “Palantir is essentially a consulting company, only taking advantage of the demand bubble fueled by FOMO (fear of missing out) in the AI field,” Burry wrote on X.

He further warned that even if the corporate AI spending cycle continues for several years, “the decline will be just as severe, or even worse.” He predicted that Palantir's valuation could eventually fall below $100 billion.

In terms of the business model, Berry focused on questioning Palantir's deferred revenue structure. He pointed out that Palantir's deferred revenue to revenue ratio is about 32%, which is closer to consulting giant Accenture (ACN.US)'s about 31%, and far lower than the 80% to 207% level of subscription software companies such as CRM.US (CRM.US) and ServiceNow (NOW.US).

Burry called this comparison a “fatal blow” to Palantir's “software narrative.” “Palantir doesn't live up to its name,” he said bluntly.

Surge in accounts receivable raises concerns

Burry also pointed out that Palantir's accounts receivable are rising rapidly, becoming another risk point. As of June 30, the company's accounts receivable increased from $1.04 billion at the end of 2025 to $1.49 billion. Although no customer accounts for more than 10% of revenue, one customer accounts for 27% of accounts receivable.

Equity Incentives and Tax Disputes

Bury also criticized Palantir's equity incentive plan and its associated tax benefits. The company's 2025 GAAP profit before tax was approximately $1.6 billion, but it did not pay federal cash taxes after carry-over using net operating losses. The federal net operating loss increased from 5.5 billion US dollars to 9 billion US dollars. Burry believes this is mainly related to deductions related to equity incentives.

“Shareholders are paying for employee compensation through dilution,” Burry said. The government subsidizes Palantir through huge tax breaks.” He also pointed out that Palantir cancelled the $1 billion share repurchase authorization after only repurchasing approximately $75 million of shares in 2025.

CEO's private jet spending is accused of being “extravagant”

Bury also separately criticized the expenses associated with CEO Alex Karp Private Jet. Palantir disclosed that related expenses in 2025 reached US$17.2 million, a significant increase from US$7.7 million the previous year.

Burry called this expenditure “$17.2 million air club” and denounced it as “excessive” and “outrageous.”

According to reports, Bury is famous for successfully predicting the 2008 financial crisis. He has long been bearish on US stocks. He is also one of Wall Street's staunch skeptics of the AI craze, and has further shorted related stocks such as Nvidia, Oracle, Palantir, Nebius, and Caterpillar.

However, before Nvidia's latest earnings report was released, Bury bought bullish options while increasing shorting. This operation shows that although he is still bearish, he has predicted the risk that the earnings report exceeding expectations may cause the stock price to skyrocket. In the end, Nvidia's performance exceeded expectations and the guidelines were optimistic. After the results, it surged 8.74% in a single day, confirming Bury's short-term market judgment.