880,000 BTC becomes a roadblock to $80,000, and the institutional game determines life and death

According to Woofun AI, the current price of Bitcoin is stuck near $77,890, and its upper $80,000 mark is difficult to overcome due to the $88 billion break-even resistance made up of $68 million BTC.

The underlying reason lies in the cost distribution and trading behavior of long-term holders. According to Woofun AI on-chain data, the long-term holder expenditure output profit ratio (SOPR) monitored by Bitfinex has fluctuated in the 0.88 to 1.19 range for nine consecutive trading days. The latest value recorded 0.98, approaching the break-even point of 1.

This indicator shows that large amounts of bitcoins are being sold at prices close to the purchase price, causing supply-side pressure. Looking back on August 27, Bitcoin closed at $80,256, when 72.1% of circulation was profitable; however, as the price fell back to $77,468, the profit ratio plummeted to 67.7%. This drastic change of state revealed that around 880,000 BTC on the market were concentrated within the $2,800 cost bandwidth, which could turn into selling pressure at any time.

It is worth noting that although most sellers are at a slight loss or are protected, SOPR did not continue to fall below the 0.9 capitulation threshold, and the average purchase cost for active investors estimated by Bitcoin's real market average was $76,350, which provided bottom support for the price and prevented a deeper decline.

Judging from the flow and structure of capital, the market is experiencing significant differentiation in institutional behavior. On the one hand, demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs showed signs of cooling down after experiencing strong inflows in the summer. Although capital was still injected in August, there was no continuous sell-off wave, which reduced buying pressure when potential sellers surged in. Strategy (MSTR.US), on the other hand, has shown a very different strategy. Since May 14, the company has insisted on continuing to buy above that price even when the market price is resistant around $80,000, becoming a key force against retail investors and short-term profit market sell-offs. Data from the options market further confirm this climate where prudence and gaming coexist.

According to Bitfinex analysis, the average implied volatility of Bitcoin is 37.2, which is only at the 18th percentile of the past year's daily closing price statistics, which means that the environment of low volatility is not normal. As the September 11 option expiration date approaches, the market's bearish call option ratio is 0.56, indicating that bullish sentiment prevails slightly, but protective positions are still intense. Specifically, put options are mainly concentrated in the defensive range of $68,000 to $75,000, while the largest open call option contracts are piled up at $80,000, reflecting the conflicting mentality of investors looking forward to a breakthrough and strictly preventing a pullback.

The key to future trends is whether buyers can fully absorb this $68 billion break-even supply. If Bitcoin closes at $82,818 for two consecutive trading days, along with improved holders' profits and net inflows of ETF funds, it means that supply pressure has been lifted and the market focus will move up to the $85,200 on-chain cost benchmark. Conversely, if support falls and the closing price falls below $76,657 for two consecutive trading days, the current support structure will weaken, and the price may drop to $73,500, testing the $69,980 area where short-term holders' costs are located. This is the key direction the market is once again facing after being blocked many times.