Guojin Securities: AI power upgrades are proposed along two paths, focusing on benefiting technology iterative power supply and component companies
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that as the GPU/ASIC single-chip power consumption and overall cabinet power continue to increase, if the power supply voltage remains unchanged, the transmission current will rise simultaneously, while line loss is directly proportional to the current square, and copper consumption, heating, cable, and space constraints will increase accordingly. On the other hand, the GPU/ASIC core voltage remains around 1V for a long time, and the chip side can no longer reduce current by increasing the voltage. Therefore, the AI power supply upgrade follows two paths: the front end reduces long-distance transmission current by boosting voltage, and the back end reduces PDN resistance by shortening the low voltage and high current transmission path. It is recommended to focus on power supply and component companies that benefit from technological iterations.
Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:
The first battle: voltage boost and current reduction. 800VDC pushes the power supply architecture to continuously increase the voltage from the side of the facility to the inside of the server
On the outside of the cabinet, Sidecar is compatible with the existing 480 VAC infrastructure to achieve rapid introduction of 800VDC. Panama uses integrated compression on the medium voltage side to traditional power supply links, and SST has a medium voltage direct conversion to 800VDC as the long-term evolution direction. As 800V further enters iTrack, the cabinet also forms shelf-grade 800V → 50V and tray-grade 800V → 12V/6V paths. The former emphasizes compatibility with existing server power supply systems, while the latter brings high voltage closer to Compute Tray or even GPU, increasing power density by reducing intermediate conversion levels and low voltage high current transmission distances.
The second battle: resistance reduction at close range, 800V sinks to the board level, and three power supplies move from discrete to module/VPD
800V board level direct reduction requires high conversion ratio conversion within a board level space significantly smaller than traditional rack power supplies. To compress the volume of magnetic devices, the switching frequency is increased from hundreds of kHz to close to 1 MHz, and the high frequency operating conditions further amplify GaN's low switching loss and high power density advantages. More importantly, the 50V, 12V, and 6V intermediate busses have not yet converged, but no matter what kind of solution is finally adopted, the 800V input side will need to add a high frequency high conversion ratio DC/DC.
Low voltage and high current drive the evolution of tertiary power supplies from discrete to modular, vertical power supply and higher integration
When the power supply voltage finally drops to about 1V required by the GPU/ASIC core, further boosting is difficult, and reducing PDN impedance becomes the main means of controlling loss. Traditional horizontal power supply requires large current to be transmitted over a long distance on the PCB, while modular power supplies reduce the power supply area by improving device integration. VPD further moves the power supply to the back of the chip and directly shortens the power supply path from VRM to the chip. Long-term IVR/SIVR is expected to continue to migrate voltage regulation to the package and chip interior.
The two campaigns jointly promoted the spread of AI power supply value from traditional PSU to complete grid-to-chip power supply links
The front-end 800V upgrade brought new demand for HVDCPowerRack, SST, and silicon carbide, while the back-end increased the value of DrMOS, chip inductors, MLCC capacitors, PCBs, and secondary/tertiary power modules.
Risk Alerts
Capital expenditure falls short of expectations; chip power increases fall short of expectations; changes in technology routes; customer certification and order volume fall short of expectations, etc.