China Merchants Securities: Overall profit has recovered, but individual stock differentiation shows that the AI sector is booming

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that 26H1 computer industry operations have improved markedly, overall revenue has grown steadily, and net profit returns and deductions have increased dramatically, but the median net profit growth rate of individual stocks has changed from positive to negative. In terms of the quality of growth, the gross margin of the 26H1 industry increased slightly, the overall expense ratio for the period narrowed, and operating cash flow improved markedly in the second quarter. Among them, AI is the core engine of industry growth. The AI computing power infrastructure, AI data services, and AI application segments have performed well. It is recommended to focus on the core goals of the relevant industrial chain.

The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:

From a growth perspective, the overall revenue of the industry grew steadily in the first half of 2026, with a sharp increase in net profit attributable to mother and net profit, but the median net profit growth rate of individual stocks changed from positive to negative

The 26H1 computer industry achieved total revenue of 562.507 billion yuan, YoY +9.21% under the overall law, and the growth rate decreased by 3.93 pcts year on year; the median revenue growth rate of individual stocks in the industry was 2.24%. The total net profit of the industry was 13.855 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of YoY +115.68% under the overall law; the average net profit growth rate of individual stocks in the industry was -6.90%, and the growth rate turned positive and negative year on year; total net profit after deducting non-net profit of 7.440 billion yuan, YoY +501.06%; the median growth rate of non-net profit deducted by individual stocks in the industry was -4.76%, and the growth rate changed from positive to negative. In terms of distribution, 26H 156.42% of companies achieved year-on-year revenue growth (56.59% in the same period last year), of which 5.07% of companies achieved a revenue growth rate of more than 50%, and 51.34% of companies fell into the 0%-50% range; 45.97% of companies achieved net profit growth, reversal or loss reduction (55.09% in the same period last year). Among them, 9.85% of companies achieved a significant increase in net profit (>= 50%), 10.45% of companies achieved a slight increase (0%-50%), 7.46% of companies reversed losses, 17.31% of companies achieved losses Reduce losses. Looking at a single quarter, the overall revenue of the 26q2 industry was YoY +13.46%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.50pct, and the median growth rate of individual stocks was 2.26%; net profit to mother YoY +70.61%, and the median growth rate of individual stocks was -4.43%, changing from positive to negative; after deducting non-net profit YoY +71.74%; the median growth rate of individual stocks minus non-net profit was -7.56%, which turned positive and negative year on year. In terms of distribution, 54.33% of companies achieved year-on-year revenue growth (56.29% in the same period last year); 47.76% of companies achieved net profit growth, loss reversal, or loss reduction (55.39% in the same period last year).

From the perspective of growth quality, the gross margin of the 26H1 industry increased slightly, the overall cost ratio for the period narrowed, and operating cash flow improved significantly in the second quarter

The overall gross margin of the 26H1 industry was 22.40%, up 0.11pct year-on-year. The total cost rate for the period was 20.53%, down 0.81 pct year on year. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 6.32%, down 0.56 pct year on year; the management expense ratio was 5.09%, down 0.44 pct year on year; and the R&D expense ratio was 8.52%, down 0.31 pct year on year. Looking at a single quarter, the overall gross margin level of the 26Q2 industry was 22.88%, down 0.51 pct year on year; the cost ratio for the period was 18.99%, down 1.15 pct year on year. In terms of cash flow, the overall net operating cash flow of the 26H1 industry was -44.422 billion yuan, an increase over the same period last year; the overall net operating cash flow of 26Q2 was 5.863 billion yuan, a significant improvement over the same period last year. The total amount of accounts receivable and contract liabilities in the 26H1 industry was 140.623 billion yuan, YoY +11.91%; total accounts receivable and contract assets for the same period were 362,933 billion yuan, YoY -2.74%, and industry accounts receivable management was slightly effective.

Looking at segments, the AI industry chain's performance is strong

On the revenue side, most sectors of 26H1 achieved revenue growth. Five of the eight key segments in the bank's statistics achieved positive revenue growth. The top three median revenue growth rates were AI computing power infrastructure, AI data services, and AI applications, with year-on-year increases of 24.09%/19.87%/5.95%, respectively. Compared with 25H1, revenue growth in the four sectors of AI computing power infrastructure, AI data services, medical IT, and network security accelerated year-on-year. On the profit side, the median growth rate for a total of 6 sectors after deducting non-profit was positive, and the median growth rate of AI computing power infrastructure, AI applications, and AI data services ranked in the top three, at 78.63%/25.19%/10.91%, respectively. Compared with 25H1, the 26H1 AI computing power infrastructure, AI applications, network security, and medical IT sectors deducted non-net profit growth has accelerated. Looking at a single quarter, a total of five sectors achieved positive revenue growth in 26Q2. The three sectors of AI computing power infrastructure, AI data services, and AI applications had the highest median revenue growth rate of 34.83%/9.46%/6.38%, respectively; revenue growth in the three sectors of AI computing power infrastructure, financial IT, and medical IT accelerated year-on-year.

Risk warning: Policy support such as Xinchuang and Internet Security falls short of expectations; technological development in the AI industry falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; technological innovation falls short of expectations.