BTC fluctuates in a narrow range: macro data and ETF flow are variables

According to Woofun AI, Bitfinex determined that Bitcoin was fluctuating in a narrow range for 5 days, and the price was always anchored above the true market average (TMM). This technical pattern shows that despite macroeconomic uncertainty in the market, the current supply and demand structure is still in a relatively balanced state, providing key support for subsequent trends.

The underlying reason is that this average level is close to the average cost of active investors, effectively curbing the urge to sell on a large scale.

Judging from the technical review of prices, the transaction price of Bitcoin fluctuated between $76,500 and $79,500, while Bitfinex estimated the TMM to be around $76,350. This consolidation trend is a digestion after a strong rise in August. Bitcoin rose 24.9% in that month, and the monthly opening price was $62,922; of these, a weekly increase of 21.1% was recorded in mid-August.

Notably, the momentum data confirms the historical pattern: since 2020, Bitcoin has had a weekly increase of more than 15% over 17 weeks. In 14 cases under such circumstances, the price continued to rise for the next 30 days, with an average return of 8.4%.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, institutional funding trends are also strong. An institution purchased 4,603 bitcoins at an average price of $80,318 between August 24 and August 30, costing US$369.7 million, increasing its total holdings to 845,050, highlighting enterprise-level reserve requirements.

The macro calendar of events is putting a stress test on the market. After Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh sent hawkish signals at the Jackson Hole meeting, the market's focus turned to key September data: employment data released on September 4, CPI released on September 11, and the Federal Reserve meeting was held from September 15 to 16. As of August 31, the market expects the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates in September to 66%, increasing the sensitivity of risky assets to data.

At the same time, there was a shift in the flow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds, from net inflows to negative values in early September. If redemptions continue, it will put downward pressure on TMM.

Derivatives market signals suggest potential volatility risks. The average implied volatility of Bitcoin measured by Bitfinex is about 37.2, which is lower than the recent actual volatility of about 41%. This inversion phenomenon indicates that traders expect the market to remain calm, but once macroeconomic data drives major changes, price elasticity in a low implied volatility environment may increase significantly, triggering intense market conditions.