In August, sales volume in China's heavy truck market fell slightly by about 1% month-on-month to 83,000 vehicles, and overseas exports continued to rise

The Zhitong Finance App learned that data from the First Commercial Vehicle Network shows that in August of this year, China's heavy truck market sold a total of about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale sales volume, including exports and new energy), with sales “two consecutive declines”, a slight decrease of about 1% from July, and a decrease of about 9.4% from 91,600 vehicles in the same period last year. Overseas exports remain strong, and China's heavy truck industry's overseas exports continue to maintain an upward trend. Exports for the month are expected to increase by more than 35% year on year.

In terms of heavy new energy trucks, terminal sales are expected to increase by about 35% year on year (lower than the 104% and 108% year-on-year growth rates in May and June, and lower than the 59% year-on-year increase in July), while the month-on-month decline is nearly 10%. The bottom effect is obvious. It is expected that the domestic NEV heavy truck market will not heat up month-on-month until at least the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” traditional peak season, but its year-on-year growth rate will slow further.

Monthly chart of sales volume in China's heavy truck market for 2020-2026 (unit: vehicle)

Heavy truck sales fell 9% year on year in August, with a cumulative increase of 16%

The heavy truck market trend for the third quarter of 2026 is still very unclear.

According to preliminary data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in August of this year, China's heavy truck market sold a total of about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale sales volume, including exports and new energy), a slight decrease of about 1% from July and a decrease of about 9.4% from 91,600 vehicles in the same period last year. This is the third year-on-year decline in the heavy truck industry since this year, and the first time since this year there have been two consecutive declines.

From January to August of this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy truck industry reached about 828,000 vehicles, an increase of about 16% over the previous year, and the cumulative growth rate further slowed down.

2015-2026 annual sales chart of China's heavy truck industry (unit: 10,000 vehicles)

The decline in wholesale sales in the heavy truck market in August was the result of a combination of adverse factors: low domestic demand, overspending on policy and regulation changes, high sales during the same period last year, and continued slump in the gas vehicle segment.

First, July and August are the low season for domestic logistics and transportation. Various extreme climates such as intense heat, typhoons, and torrential rain are “raging,” and end users' demand for car purchases has also bottomed out. In addition, the sales base for the same period last year was high (driven by the trade-in of national four trucks), and the stock of national four trucks this year has been drastically reduced compared to last year. As a result, wholesale sales of heavy trucks declined somewhat year-on-year in August.

Second, in August, the market was still absorbing the impact of early overdrafts brought about by the change in AEBS regulations for heavy trucks. Coupled with the low domestic demand season, sales in segments including LNG heavy trucks and diesel heavy trucks all declined significantly year on year. Even electric heavy trucks, which were on the rise, experienced a month-on-month decline.

Third, since the oil and gas price advantage is still not significant, there is no sign of recovery for heavy gas trucks in August. Sales are expected to drop sharply year on year, and also decline from month to month.

The good news, however, is that despite the overall low season of domestic demand, overseas exports are still strong. In August of this year, benefiting from strong demand in markets such as Africa, Latin America and Central Asia, China's heavy truck industry continued to maintain an upward trend in overseas exports. Exports for that month are expected to increase by more than 35% year-on-year.

Electric cards “exclusively support” the overall domestic situation, and gas vehicles declined year-on-year

Due to the shift in AEBS regulations, a large number of new heavy trucks were centrally licensed and “certified” (operating licenses) from May to June and mid-July. As a result, the heavy truck market has continued to slow down since the second half of the year. Actual sales of domestic heavy truck terminals are expected to drop by more than 25% year on year in August this year, and there is also a decrease of about 11%-13% from month to month.

On the one hand, heavy gas trucks are still at the bottom of the valley. In addition to looking at the low peak season for car purchases, the sales trend of heavy natural gas trucks depends on the difference in oil and gas prices. From July to August of this year, the price of LNG per kilogram in various regions was around 5.5-6.5 yuan (there was not much change in July and August). Northern gas was cheaper, while southern gas was relatively expensive; oil prices showed an alternating trend of ups and downs. Recently, the official price of No. 0 diesel was around 7.6-7.8 yuan per liter. Considering the price of diesel at many private gas stations of 5.5-6 yuan per liter, the difference in oil and gas prices was still not obvious in August of this year. As a result, heavy gas trucks lacked economic advantages over diesel vehicles. Coupled with the negative factors of the mid-season off-season and second-quarter regulatory overdrafts, their sales failed to reverse year-on-year. Judging from domestic terminal data, the sales volume of heavy natural gas trucks in August is expected to drop by more than 10% month-on-month and 65% year-on-year, and the domestic penetration rate will drop to about 11%. If heavy natural gas trucks are to achieve a “desperate reversal,” they must also rely on the continued decline in LNG prices. If it falls below 5 yuan/kg, this market segment can only break out of the bottom.

On the other hand, the growth rate of new energy heavy trucks, with pure electric heavy trucks as the main force, continues to slow down. In the second quarter of 2026, stimulated by rising demand brought about by the renewal and replacement of national 4 and 5 trucks, changes in AEBS regulations, and fluctuations in oil and gas prices, domestic sales of new energy heavy trucks exploded, and the market experienced a certain degree of early overdraft (overdrafted demand in the second half of the year).

As a result, by the low season in July and August, this market segment also faced a month-on-month decline. In August of this year, sales of new energy heavy truck terminals are expected to increase by about 35% year on year (lower than the 104% and 108% year-on-year growth rates in May and June, and also lower than the 59% year-on-year increase in July), while the month-on-month decline is nearly 10%. The bottom effect is obvious. It is expected that the domestic NEV heavy truck market will not heat up month-on-month until at least the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” traditional peak season, but its year-on-year growth rate will slow further (NEV heavy truck terminal sales reached 24,000 units in September last year).