The ETF has attracted 14 million and Ripple is still falling, and macroeconomic and custodial fog is shrouded in

According to Woofun AI, the divergence between capital inflows and asset prices was once again highlighted in the Ripple ecosystem. Although Ripple's spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $14.38 million on September 1, the XRP price failed to be supported and instead fell to around $1.32.

This core contradiction reveals that in the current market structure, the ability of institutions to absorb capital is being doubly impacted by the macroeconomic environment and supply-side expectations, causing the traditional “capital inflow and rise” logic to temporarily fail.

Looking at the microstructure of capital flows, data compiled by Woofun AI shows that in the September 1 data of SosoValue statistics, the XRPZ ETF issued by Franklin ranked first with a net inflow of 6.63 million US dollars, followed by the GXRP ETF issued by Grayscale, with a net inflow of 4.72 million US dollars. As of today, the total cumulative net inflow of these products was close to $1.68 billion, and the total net assets reached $1.44 billion, indicating that regulated ETF products remained strong in their financial appeal during the Ripple pullback period.

However, this demand did not translate into a price rebound. The underlying reason is that XRP has risen by nearly 70% during August, and has accumulated a sizable profit market, which poses potential selling pressure. The more critical variable is systemic risk in the macro market. Since September 1, the rise in US Treasury yields and market concerns about the yen have jointly suppressed the performance of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. According to the Coindoo report, it is these two major macro risks that have caused many large cryptocurrencies to decline simultaneously, making it difficult to attribute Ripple's decline to a single factor in isolation.

Notably, since the August high of $1.70 was blocked, XRP has been in a downward channel, and although ETF funds have continued to flow in, they have not been able to reverse the overall downward trend dominated by macro-sentiment.

At the supply-side level, the operating mechanism of Ripple's escrow account has further exacerbated the market's perception of a mismatch between supply and demand. The planned release of funds in September involves three transactions, including 500 million, 400 million, and 100 million XRP, respectively.

However, XRPL on-chain data shows that later in the day, Ripple created new escrow accounts for 500 million and 200 million tokens while putting 700 million tokens back into locked accounts. This means that only 300 million tokens are outside of the newly created escrow account and can be controlled by Ripple, yet transaction records don't show that all of these tokens have flowed into the exchange or open market. Ripple's description of the escrow system emphasizes that the 1 billion units released each month are only a cap on the new supply, and unused tokens can be placed into new escrow accounts released in the future. As a result, the net ETF inflow of $14.38 million cannot be directly compared to the value of the 300 million potentially circulating tokens valued at $1.35 billion worth of approximately $405 million. The former reflects fund inflows in a single day, while the latter is inventory controlled by the company that has not yet entered the open market.

This difference in order of magnitude explains why, despite strong demand for ETFs, the market remains wary of potential supply pressure, causing prices to continue to be pressured in the midst of negative macroeconomic conditions and escrow fog.

Technical analysis shows that XRP has formed a series of gradually declining highs since the failure of the breakout mentioned in the August 29 analysis. The volume was far lower than during the upward period, indicating that the current retracement was not accompanied by a serious fall in large-scale sales. On September 2, the XRP price fell to $1.3265 and then rebounded to $1.35, the lowest price since the August high, but the closing price of the day was still above the downward trend line of the descending channel, and the ascending channel structure remained intact. If the closing price falls below $1.32 on a day, a new pullback low will be formed and the support level in the Fibonacci retracement structure will be broken, and the market focus will shift to $1.27, which corresponds to the 200-day simple moving average and the lower boundary of the channel.

Once it falls below $1.32, the support structure will weaken, completely breaking the downward channel, and the price will need to fall further below the downtrend line. For bulls, the obstacle ahead is at the upper boundary of the channel, and only standing in this position can indicate the end of the trend of lowering the high point. Subsequently, the $1.40-1.41 area corresponds to a 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, and further up to the 0.382 retracement level around $1.47. If XRP can return to the middle of the August price range, continued capital inflows will play a greater role. Holding on to $1.32 and breaking through the upper boundary of the channel, as volume rebounds above $1.41, will mean that the breakout exceeds the initial reaction.

Conversely, a drop below $1.32 indicates that ETF demand is insufficient to stabilize the market, and the key test will focus on the 200-day moving average and below the descending channel. The September data did not support the release of escrow as the sole reason for the decline. Most tokens returned to escrow, and ETF demand was strong, but the overall market declined. What needs to be answered urgently is whether $1.32 can hold support, giving the bulls a chance to gain support above the channel. Despite capital inflows, the stock price has yet to prove that it is strong enough to end the pullback.