Oil Prices Break $90, Macro Changes Amid Bitcoin Shock

According to Woofun AI, the resumption of direct exchanges of fire between the US and Iran caused severe shocks in the capital market, and Bitcoin hovered around $77,000. After the US announced the expansion of the attack on Iran on September 1, Bitcoin quickly fell from a high of over 79,000 US dollars to about 77,200 thousand US dollars. At one point, the intraday decline reached 2.1%, and even briefly fell below 76.5 million US dollars in the intraday period.

This correction occurred after a sharp rebound in August. Bitcoin accumulated a cumulative increase of about 25% in August, the best August performance since 2017, and climbed from around $64,000 to above $81,000 in late August. Previously, ETF capital inflows and concentrated short positions jointly boosted currency prices, but as the scope of the US-Iran exchange expanded, oil prices, US dollars, and US bond yields rose simultaneously, and crypto assets followed a decline in technology stocks.

The US Central Command announced on September 1 that the US military has completed a new round of attacks on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targets, covering air defense facilities, radar systems, maritime assets, mine-mining capabilities, and communication facilities. The US side pointed out that this action was in response to Iran's recent attack on commercial shipping and US military personnel in the Strait of Hormuz. According to AP reports, Iran then launched missiles and drones at various locations in the region. Donald Trump warned that if Iran continues to retaliate, it will be hit harder. Prior to this round of air strikes, the US and Iran had ended their military silence for about a month on August 30, after which two oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz were attacked.

Although the two sides previously reached a temporary arrangement in June, navigation in the strait has yet to return to normal. It is worth noting that the Strait of Hormuz was responsible for about 20% of global oil traffic before the war, and Iran's actual blockade of the strait has continued for several months, and the impact of geographical tension on the global energy supply chain is intensifying.

Crude oil prices soared due to a geo-risk premium. WTI crude rose $4.46, or 5.2%, to close at $90.22 a barrel; Brent crude rose $4.16, or 4.6%, to close at $94.65, both of which hit a five-week high closing price. Traders once again increased pricing for supply disruptions in the Middle East after the US hit Iran again. Before the war broke out, Brent crude was around $72 per barrel, and the closing price on September 1 was about 31% higher than this level. The increase in energy prices has been directly transmitted to the corporate cost side. The International Air Transport Association predicts that the average price of aviation fuel will rise by nearly 70% in 2026 compared to 2025, and that global airline fuel spending will increase from US$252 billion to about US$350 billion.

American Airlines (AAL.US) revealed that fuel and related taxes increased by US$2.6 billion year-on-year in the first half of 2026, an increase of 48.7%. PVM analyst John Evans believes that renewed attacks between the US and Iran with missiles have increased the possibility that the conflict will continue for a long time. Analysts surveyed by Reuters in August predicted that blocked shipping would keep oil prices above $80 per barrel in 2026. If tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz continues to be sluggish, refineries and shipping companies will still have to bear the cost pressure of longer transportation routes, higher insurance costs, and delivery delays.

Energy prices have raised expectations for future inflation, leading US bond investors to demand higher yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.792% on September 1, hitting 4.798% intraday, the highest level since January 2025. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise the probability of at least 25 basis points of interest rate hike from September 15 to 16 to 66.2%, compared to only 39.6% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch. Higher risk-free interest rates weighed down stock valuations, with the S&P 500 falling 0.7% on September 1, Dow Jones down 0.8%, Nasdaq down 1%, and Russell 2000 down 1.2%.

The US dollar strengthened at the same time, and spot gold once fell by about 2.5% to around $4330 per ounce. The pressure to raise interest rates brought about by rising oil prices surpassed safe-haven purchases caused by geographical conflicts, and the opportunity cost of holding gold increased as US bond yields rose. The bond sell-off spread to Europe and Asia at the same time. The yield on UK 10-year treasury bonds once rose to 5.25%, the yield on Japan's 10-year treasury bonds hit 3%, and European gas prices rose to a three-year high. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, believes that short-term real interest rates and rising US dollars will still suppress gold, but continued rising energy and agricultural product prices may re-boost demand for gold to hedge against inflation over a longer period of time.

Despite pressure from the macro environment, the microstructure of the crypto market shows that money is still flowing in. According to Farside Investors data, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $216.7 million on August 31, reverting to the net inflow trend interrupted the previous trading day.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the cumulative net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs within Glassnode's late-August emptying window was US$2.23 billion. The Ether spot ETF had a net inflow of US$87.68 million on August 31, drawing in 11 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net inflow of about US$1.6 billion over the period. According to Bitfinex estimates, the capital demand for Ether funds relative to the market size in recent weeks was about four times that of Bitcoin, indicating that institutional funds were still increasing their exposure to crypto assets through regulated products before the conflict escalated. The Bitfinex trading team said that the recent rise is mainly driven by spot buying. The number of unclosed futures positions is slowly increasing, and the premium of futures compared to spot is still low.

Leveraged bulls did not accumulate rapidly during the rise, so the September 1 pullback has yet to trigger large-scale chain liquidation. As of August 31, the volume of unclosed Bitcoin futures positions was still below 700,000 BTC, below the June 4 phase high of around 801,000 BTC; the 30-day implied volatility fell below 40%. Deribit's actively traded put options are concentrated at execution prices of $70,000, $7.3 million, and $74,000, and some traders have already bought downside protection for the conflict to expand or the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. Bitfinex listed $771,000 as short-term support, while Glassnode listed $81,000 to $86,000 as an intensive selling range.

The forward-looking institutional outlook shows that market divisions have intensified. Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere believes that underallocated investors are still buying when falling, and Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate until the September Federal Reserve meeting. $75,000 and $72,000 are supported below, and there is selling pressure around $82,000. LMAX Group strategist Joel Kruger believes that the simultaneous rise in oil prices, US bond yields, and the US dollar will limit Bitcoin's short-term upside.

In its mid-year outlook, J.P. Morgan Asset Management predicts that long-term blockage of the Strait of Hormuz will push global economic risks to stagflation, that is, inflation remains high, economic growth will slow at the same time, and reduce the room for interest rate cuts in 2026. The US will release the August non-farm payrolls data on September 4. The market expects to add about 55,000 new jobs and maintain an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Capital.com analyst Kyle Rodda said that if employment data is weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve will face greater resistance to raising interest rates during the economic slowdown. Thereafter, the interest rate decision from September 15 to 16 will directly update the dollar, US bond yield, and Bitcoin's capital costs, and become a key point in determining the next phase of the market.